Expert: Reform tensions visible, but Michal unlikely to be ousted as PM before election

Political commentator Tarmo Jüristo stated there is too little time before the next elections to replace Estonian Prime Minister Kristen Michal.

Jüristo, head of the Estonian think tank Liberal Citizen Foundation (SALK), said attempting to forcibly remove the prime minister seven months before the elections would be extremely risky. He argued that the Reform Party in its current state cannot realistically win the elections regardless of the leader.

The departure of an MP from the Reform Party on Monday contradicts claims that the party is a united team, according to Jüristo. Meelis Kiili has left the Reform Party.

Kalev Stoicescu, the Riigikogu National Defense Committee chair, announced on Sunday evening that he was leaving the Reform-Eesti 200 coalition partner, Eesti 200.

Tensions within the Reform Party are visible and have been seen several times before, Jüristo noted. He mentioned that former Tallinn deputy mayor Pärtel-Peeter Pere spoke openly about tensions and questions similar to those highlighted by Kiili.

Potential leadership candidates

Jüristo identified former education minister Liina Kersna as a potential candidate for Reform Party leadership. He also noted that Hanno Pevkur has previously served as the leader of the Reform Party.

Urmas Paet was mentioned as a well-known name, though Jüristo expressed doubt regarding Paet's ambition for leadership.

Polling and parliamentary arithmetic

The Reform Party has fallen to fifth place in recent polls, behind the Center Party, Isamaa, the Social Democrats, and the Conservative People's Party of Estonia (EKRE).

The Reform-Eesti 200 coalition currently holds 50 seats in the 101-seat Estonian Riigikogu chamber. A minimum of 68 votes is required in the Riigikogu to elect a president in Estonia, according to official parliamentary procedure.