The calm that prevailed between enemies since the 2022 truce has ended; escalation between the Houthis and Saudi Arabia is increasing daily, risking a new active front in an already troubled Middle East. The Houthi armed forces spokesperson, Yahya Saree, regularly publishes communiqués on his X account announcing the success of military operations against Saudi Arabia or internationally recognized Yemeni government positions.
The internationally recognized government of Yemen has been fighting for several years alongside Saudi Arabia against the Iran-backed Houthi militia. The Houthis effectively overran Yemen in 2014 and plunged the country into civil war. The group, officially called 'Ansar Allah' (Supporters of God), controls primarily northern Yemen and large parts of the western Red Sea coast.
The current escalation was triggered in July by airstrikes in Sanaa, the Houthi-controlled capital of Yemen, aimed at preventing the landing of an Iranian aircraft on Yemeni soil, according to the internationally recognized Yemeni government.
Iran's Role and Regional Impact
The International Crisis Group think tank believes the Houthis feel emboldened by the course of the Iran war and that Iran has supported the militia's plan. The group described Iran's shift in Yemen policy as a 'course change', noting that Tehran had previously advocated for de-escalation in Yemen.
According to experts, the Houthis could not have built their weapons arsenal — including missiles with a range of up to 3,000 kilometers — without assistance from Tehran. The weapons used by the Houthis are believed to have been smuggled into Yemen by sea, and an elite unit of the Iranian armed forces is alleged to have trained Houthi fighters. Iran has previously denied providing financial or weapons support to the Houthis.
The Houthi militia has portrayed itself as a victim of a conspiracy between Israel, the United States, and Saudi Arabia. Observers believe the Houthis aim to gain international recognition. The group's main source of income is the sale of smuggled petroleum products.
The range of Houthi missiles, which experts say could not have been built without Tehran's assistance.
Threat to Maritime Routes
Further attacks on ships could disrupt traffic through the Red Sea and the strategically important Bab al-Mandab strait. The strait is a key maritime route connecting Asia to Europe via the Suez Canal and has gained increasing importance as an alternative route for Saudi oil exports, given the disruption of the Strait of Hormuz due to the Iran war.
The Houthi militia significantly disrupted global trade in the Red Sea starting in 2023, in solidarity with Hamas in the Gaza Strip. Since the end of 2023, many international shipping companies had largely avoided the Red Sea due to security concerns related to Houthi attacks. Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd resumed shipping services through the Red Sea and the Suez Canal in July 2024, after a security assessment. The first ship to resume the route westward was the 'Berlin Maersk'.
Humanitarian Crisis
The war in Yemen since 2014 has triggered a humanitarian catastrophe, leaving millions dependent on aid. Despite its own oil and gas reserves, Yemen is one of the poorest and least developed countries in the world.
