Democrat James Talarico leads Republican Senate nominee Ken Paxton 47% to 45% in the Texas U.S. Senate race, according to a survey by the Barbara Jordan Public Policy Research and Survey Center at Texas Southern University.
The survey, which polled 1,200 likely voters in Texas via SMS text messages directing respondents to an online platform between July 27 and July 30, 2026, has a margin of error of +/-, 2.83 points.
Other recent polling shows Talarico with leads in the race, including a Fox News poll showing him ahead 51-48 and a Texas Public Opinion Research survey finding him ahead 45-40.
Voter Demographics and Endorsements
The Texas Southern University survey indicates Talarico leads Paxton by 19 points among Latino voters. The survey also found Paxton winning white voters by 14 points, a smaller margin than the 33-point lead Donald Trump secured among white voters in Texas according to exit polls.
Exit polls also show Donald Trump won Hispanic voters in Texas by 10 points.
Following the Republican primary, in which Ken Paxton defeated US Senator John Cornyn and received an endorsement from Donald Trump, US Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-S.D.) and his political team stated it would be up to Donald Trump's team to ensure Paxton wins in November.
Campaign Finance and Reactions
Amount raised by James Talarico, according to campaign finance reports.
Campaign finance reports show James Talarico raised $30 million, while Ken Paxton raised $9 million last quarter. Additionally, reports indicate the GOP spent more than $60 million on the campaign of US Senator John Cornyn.
The Talarico campaign is running advertisements describing Ken Paxton as 'the most corrupt politician in America.' Paxton, who has won statewide elections three times, faces criticism from political allies of John Thune; an ally of Thune told Axios, 'Republicans may keep Texas, but you broke it, you buy it.'
'The only poll that matters is November 3,' said Paxton's campaign adviser Nick Maddux.
