In July, Russia launched 381 missiles into Ukraine at a rate of just over 12 per day, setting new wartime records for both overall number and rate, according to the Ukrainian air force. The proportion of Russian missiles in the overall munition count also reached a record high of just over 7% in July, based on Ukrainian air force data analyzed by ABC News.
The data, which ABC News cannot independently verify, shows a failure rate of around 58% for Russian missiles in July, including those intercepted, suppressed, or failed to reach their targets. For ballistic missiles specifically, the failure rate was around 28%.
Strain on Ukrainian defenses
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and his top officials have said Kyiv struggles to intercept Russian missiles, particularly ballistic ones. A global shortage of interceptor missiles, exacerbated by the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran, and U.S. President Donald Trump's decision to wind down U.S. aid to Kyiv have put severe strain on Ukrainian defenses, officials said.
Ukraine's air force publishes daily tallies of Russian strikes, including munitions intercepted and those that penetrated air defenses, and lists missile types such as the 'Banderol' low-cost cruise missile. Moscow, by contrast, publishes only the number of Ukrainian drones and other projectiles it claims to have intercepted. Neither side provides detailed data on its own munitions use, and both routinely describe their targets as military, energy, or industrial sites while accusing the other of intentionally hitting civilian targets.
The U.S.-made Patriot system has become Ukraine's prime defense against Russian missiles. Kyiv is working to produce its own interceptor, the Freyja, and collaborating with European partners on a shared anti-ballistic missile shield, aiming for a prototype by early 2027, officials said.
Political and production hurdles
In July, Trump had two sit-downs with Zelenskyy, at the NATO summit in Ankara, Turkey, and at the White House, where he initially said he would give Ukraine permission to produce Patriot interceptors on Ukrainian soil. Zelenskyy called it a 'historic political agreement' but warned there could be no immediate fix. After visiting the White House in late July, Zelenskyy said Ukraine was seeking delivery of another 300 Patriot interceptors before next winter. However, Trump declined to provide new missiles and walked back his commitment to the production license, saying it is 'a hard thing to give away that kind of technology.'
Analysts say the Patriot is Ukraine's most potent weapon in its ongoing 'cat-and-mouse' game with Russia. Olha Polishchuk of ACLED noted that Russian missiles have been seen employing defensive measures, such as deploying flares just before impact to misdirect interceptors, and Moscow routinely changes attack directions and timings.
Ukrainian Air Force spokesperson Yuriy Ihnat said last month that some Russian ballistic missiles were launched into Ukraine just weeks after coming off the production line, possibly indicating dwindling stockpiles. In June, Ukraine's military intelligence said Russia could launch up to 100 ballistic missiles per month without exhausting stockpiles; in July, Ukraine said Russia launched at least 126, which may be unsustainable if the estimates hold. The use of a North Korean ballistic missile in late July strikes also points to production pressures, Ukrainian officials said.
Civilian toll
Kyiv Mayor Vitali Klitschko said the capital was hit by 11 combined missile and drone attacks through July, killing at least 56 people and wounding 220. In the last week of July alone, two major missile attacks killed at least 17 people in Ukrainian cities. After a deadly attack on July 31, Zelenskyy wrote on X: 'Only one ballistic missile was intercepted,' adding that there are no interceptors for the Patriot systems.
Polishchuk said air raid sirens and SMS alerts give residents only two to four minutes of warning, 'not enough time to get to a shelter.' Civilians have no indication of where a missile may land, as Russian missiles regularly strike residential buildings, infrastructure, and military targets.
Military analyst Ivan Stupak said the short warning time causes 'enormous stress' and that the last missile attack on the capital came at 1:30 a.m. local time, catching him off guard. 'Then you are trying to find your clothes and jump in the shelter,' he added.
In Lviv, Deputy Mayor Serhiy Kiral said the damage from a ballistic strike is 'enormous,' with tens of millions of hryvnias in damages, dozens of people placed in temporary housing, and about 500 people seeking aid. He said homes and businesses can be 'erased' in seconds, and the psychological trauma can last years.
The UN's monitoring mission in Ukraine said it is seeing a 'disturbing escalation' in the nature of Russian attacks. June was the deadliest month for civilians since early 2022, with at least 293 killed and 1,990 injured, largely driven by long-range attacks.
