Russia has increasingly relied on ballistic missiles in its attacks on Ukraine, overwhelming Kyiv’s air defense capabilities. In July 2024, Russia fired 195 ballistic missiles of various types against Ukraine, of which only 29 were intercepted.

The disparity between launch volume and interception capability has widened. On August 1, Ukraine intercepted only one of 27 ballistic missiles launched by Russia. Days later, on August 4, Russia launched 24 ballistic missiles and four Zircon hypersonic missiles, none of which were intercepted by Ukraine.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky stated that there are practically no Patriot interceptors left for the eight Patriot batteries stationed in Ukraine. He noted that while Ukraine and the U.S. have an agreement on monthly deliveries of Patriot interceptors, the quantity is insufficient.

Surge in Russian Missile Production

Russia has significantly increased production of Iskander-M and Kinzhal ballistic and aeroballistic missiles. Estimates suggest Russia produces 60 to 65 Iskander-M missiles per month, totaling over 700 per year. Additionally, North Korea has delivered approximately 150 ballistic missiles to Russia since the end of 2023, with a newly deployed unit potentially equipped with up to 120 additional missiles.

According to Ukraine’s military intelligence, Russia can launch up to 100 ballistic missiles per month without depleting its stockpiles. Ukrainian presidential advisor Serhii 'Flash' Beskrestnov estimated that Russia can launch about 100 ballistic missiles per month against Ukraine, noting that attacks are partly launched from reserves to demonstrate force.

Global Supply Constraints

Global production of Patriot interceptors remains limited. Worldwide, approximately 60 Patriot interceptors are produced per month, with an estimated 4,000 to 5,000 PAC-3 interceptors in reserve globally. Lockheed Martin produced only 620 modern PAC-3 MSE interceptors worldwide in 2025, though it plans to increase annual production capacity to 2,000 over a seven-year program.

Since the start of the war, an average of about 133 Patriot interceptors have been delivered to Ukraine per year. However, Ukraine received only about one-third as many Patriot interceptors in 2025 as it did in 2024. Typically, two to three Patriot interceptors are used to shoot down one ballistic missile, further straining supplies.

Push for Local Production

To address the shortfall, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said the Ukrainian government had made a political decision, attributed to Donald Trump, to grant Ukraine licenses to produce Patriot interceptors. On July 28, Ukrainian and U.S. presidents discussed the implementation of this decision.

However, U.S. President Donald Trump said the United States had not yet approved Ukrainian production of Patriot interceptors and that technology transfer must be handled carefully. He stated that no other country has the capability to produce Patriot interceptors, calling it an 'incredible weapon', and emphasized that the United States has not yet reached an agreement on transferring production technology.

Officials are exploring alternative models, such as manufacturing components in Ukraine and assembling interceptors in Germany. Ukraine is also discussing participation in a new, cheaper Patriot interceptor program. Ukrainian Ambassador to Washington Olha Stefanishyna estimated it would take 12 months to five years to establish domestic production.

Alternative Defense Projects

Alongside Patriot discussions, Ukraine is developing a European-Ukrainian air defense project called 'Freyja', centered on the FP7.X interceptor developed by Fire Point. More than a dozen European defense companies are participating, aiming to produce an interceptor costing less than one million euros, significantly cheaper than the PAC-3’s approximate five million U.S. dollar price tag.

Fire Point CEO Iryna Terekh said the FP7.X interceptor’s architecture is based on Soviet-era S-300 and S-400 designs, but now shares only about 20 percent of components with them. Ukraine aims to have a prototype ready in the first half of 2027 if everything goes well.

Experts warn of the complexities involved. Fabian Hinz of the International Institute for Strategic Studies called Ukraine’s Patriot production initiative a 'long-term project' and warned that ballistic missile defense is the 'kingdom of air defense', making it extremely complex to develop. He noted that even with a production license, achieving the required annual volume of 1,600 to 2,400 interceptors would be extremely difficult, if not impossible.

In the interim, Ukraine and the U.S. are collaborating to revive Soviet-era S-300 systems by using refurbished or newly compatible missiles. Each S-300 missile used against a ballistic target frees up a Patriot interceptor for more critical threats. Meanwhile, NATO’s procurement agency ordered up to 1,000 Patriot interceptors for Germany and other European states in early 2024, though these are the older PAC-2 version, which is only partially effective against ballistic missiles.

Ukraine has only a few SAMP/T systems and limited Aster-30 interceptors. The newer SAMP/T NG system is only being phased in gradually and cannot serve as a short-term replacement for Patriot.