The US-Iran war has entered its sixth month, with Washington conducting 13 consecutive nights of strikes against Iran while signaling openness to diplomacy. Analysts, however, say the strategic picture has shifted little since the conflict began.
US Ambassador to the UN Mike Waltz told reporters that the Trump administration is allowing "some space" for diplomatic discussions with Iran. He dismissed reports that US weapons stockpiles are depleted, stating the US has "everything that it needs" for military operations.
Brandon Carr of the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft said US strategy "remains essentially the same as five months prior" and is likely to remain unsuccessful. He argued that Iran, through its control of the Strait of Hormuz, retains the majority of the war's leverage, and the US has no sound military options.
Analyst Ibrahim Jalal believes Iran's strategies of horizontal escalation and strategic patience remain unchanged. He said Iran can maintain this slow-paced war for many months. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) is thought to still retain significant missile and drone stockpiles, having recently fired at less than 40% of the daily average of the 40-day war.
Carr noted that Iran is clearly demonstrating increased targeting ability and reach. A recent Iranian attack on a US military site in Jordan killed three US soldiers. Campbell said the attack used one of Iran's larger warhead, faster ballistic missiles, capable of penetrating air and missile defenses.
Iran retains the majority of the war’s leverage.
Earlier this month, the Pentagon was reported to be rushing warplanes to the Middle East, including F-16 and F-35 fighters. Campbell said refueling capabilities are also being sent to Israel. Meanwhile, experts say that with the completion of the World Cup and the funeral of Ali Khamenei, the US and Iran will most likely continue to climb the escalation ladder.
According to The New York Times, Trump has set aside for now plans to escalate the Iran conflict over concern that intensifying the war could dangerously drain the Pentagon's already diminished stockpile of Patriot antimissile interceptors and other air defense munitions. Waltz dismissed those reports.