Milwaukee County Executive David Crowley defeated Democratic socialist State Representative Francesca Hong in the Wisconsin Democratic gubernatorial primary. Crowley won the contest by less than 1 percentage point.
The outcome contrasted with previous polling data, which had shown Hong leading Crowley by approximately 20 percentage points. In the closing days, the race was described by Kyle Kondik, managing editor of Sabato's Crystal Ball at the University of Virginia's Center for Politics, as a 'crazy race' with significant changes.
The margin by which previous polls showed Francesca Hong leading David Crowley.
Data indicated that Hong won approximately 39% of the electorate, while final polls had her in the low 40s. Meanwhile, Crowley's support reportedly increased from around 20% to roughly 40% within days during the primary.
Prediction markets also showed significant variance from the result. As of Monday night, the Kalshi prediction market gave Hong a 95% chance of winning, while Crowley had less than a 5% chance. Polymarket had previously posted on X that Hong was a 'near-lock' to win with 96% odds, though the post was later deleted. A Polymarket spokesperson told CNBC that the post describing the race was flagged internally and deleted.
A similar discrepancy occurred in the Michigan Senate race, where progressive Abdul El-Sayed won by 1 percentage point despite polls overestimating his strength by double digits. In Minnesota, Lieutenant Governor Peggy Flanagan defeated Representative Angie Craig by nearly 20 percentage points, despite prediction markets giving Flanagan about a 70% chance to win the nomination.
Differing Explanations
Various analysts offered different reasons for the results. Dan Pfeiffer, a former top Obama adviser, wrote that Hong's failure to advertise in the final days likely cost her the election. Kyle Kondik suggested that white progressives might be responding to polls faster than other Democrats.
Market experts also commented on the volatility. Kalshi co-founder and CEO Tarek Mansour wrote on X that a 5% probability does not mean an event won't happen.
US Representative Ro Khanna, D-Calif., who endorsed both Hong and Flanagan, addressed the need for movement direction, stating, 'Voters want bold change but with a patriotic spirit and fervor.' Khanna added, 'We must be for transformational change. Medicare for all, tax billionaire wealth, and no foreign wars.'
