Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said Russia is preparing a large-scale mobilization for the autumn, following a simulation of parliamentary elections. He claimed that internal Russian documents confirm the Kremlin is planning a vast wave of conscription.
Zelenskyy stated that several hundred thousand Russians will be mobilized by the end of the year, with an equivalent number expected the following year. He said the mobilization is following a simulation of parliamentary elections, and that Vladimir Putin wants to create the impression that Russians support the war.
Approximately 300,000 men were drafted during Russia's last major mobilization in autumn 2022.
The liberal opposition party Jabloko, the only party openly opposing the war, was excluded from the election by the Russian Supreme Court. Zelenskyy also said Ukraine has submitted proposals to the US to end the war, suggesting Washington could help strengthen Ukraine's defense, primarily through air defense, and pressure Russia to prepare for an end to the conflict.
Mixed reactions from Russia and analysts
According to reports, Russia has only decreed one official mobilization since the start of the full-scale invasion in September 2022. Dmitry Medvedev, deputy chairman of the Russian Security Council, stated last month that there is no need for a new mobilization, and called the reports 'lies, provocations and rumors' intended to destabilize Russia before the parliamentary election. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said in March that the topic was 'not on the agenda'.
Die Zeit noted that Zelenskyy's allegations regarding a future Russian mobilization cannot be independently verified. The Kyiv Post observed that a second direct mobilization would carry increased political risks for Putin due to growing population fatigue and the impact of war spending on the Russian economy.
Max Bergmann, an analyst at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, told the Kyiv Independent that a mobilization would be a sign the regime is under considerable pressure and in a political impasse. Janis Kluge, a Russia expert from the Stiftung Wissenschaft, expressed skepticism about a 'Russian mobilization 2.0' this year, noting recruitment is still functioning reasonably well. He estimated contract soldiers at nearly 555,000, with an additional 168,500 mobilized.
Russian political scientist Ekaterina Schulmann reported in a SPIEGEL interview in mid-July regarding rumors of a new mobilization, saying, 'Now many fear that this will be repeated or even more soldiers will be recruited.'
