Japan economic growth outlook revisions

Japan Cuts 2026 Growth Forecast to 0.9%

The Japanese Cabinet Office issued a previous economic growth forecast of 1.3% for fiscal 2026.

In January, the Japanese government issued a real GDP growth forecast of 1.3% for fiscal 2026. This initial projection included expectations for private consumption to grow by 1.3% and capital expenditure to increase by 2.8%.

During that same period, the government's estimate for consumer inflation for fiscal 2026 was set at 1.9%.

Plans to return to a budget surplus were first introduced.

The goal of returning to a primary budget surplus was first introduced in the early 2000s and has undergone multiple postponements since its inception.

Apart from the asset bubble period between 1986 and 1991, Japan's primary budget balance has remained in deficit for much of the postwar era.