Regulation of wildfire prediction markets
The developments in this story so far, most recent first.
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Development
US senators urge crackdown on wildfire betting amid warnings of arson risk
No separate article for this desk or language yet.
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· date approximate Background
Polymarket allowed betting on the 2025 Los Angeles wildfires, with over $1.2 million wagered.
During the Palisades and Eaton fires in Los Angeles in early 2025, the prediction site Polymarket allowed users to place bets on various outcomes, including wildfire containment, acreage burned, and whether the fires would spread to neighborhoods.
According to Rutgers University historian Jamie L Pietruska, the total amount wagered on these Los Angeles fires exceeded $1.2 million.
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· date approximate Background
New York state attempted to legally suspend Kalshi for operating as an unlicensed betting platform.
The state of New York is attempting to legally suspend Kalshi, alleging that the platform operates as a betting platform without the appropriate license.
While Kalshi and Polymarket are technically prediction platforms, their legal status remains a subject of debate. A spokesperson for Kalshi has stated that such bets do not belong on the platform because they create perverse motivations.
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· date approximate Background
The US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) conducted at least three inquiries into Polymarket in recent years.
The US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has conducted at least three inquiries into Polymarket, the world’s largest prediction market, in recent years.
In response to these inquiries, Polymarket stated that removing bets on specific events would not prevent tragedies.
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· date approximate Background
Polymarket was fined $1.4 million in 2022 for operating in the US without a license.
In 2022, the prediction platform Polymarket was fined $1.4 million for operating in the United States without a license.