US Federal Reserve monetary policy and inflation management

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Fed Governor Cook prepared to support rate hikes if inflation persists

NY Fed President Williams sees gradual easing of inflation pressures

Fed's favored inflation gauge shows prices edged down in June but remain high

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Fed dissenters warn of challenges in taming inflation

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Iran and the US reached an agreement on June 14, 2026, which was publicly endorsed by both presidents.

In mid-June 2026, a brief ceasefire was established between the United States and Iran. This agreement was publicly supported by both the Iranian President and the US President, with the Iranian President noting his government's support for its implementation.

The ceasefire allowed oil prices to retreat during that period. However, the arrangement was short-lived, as fighting resumed in July 2026.

The inflation measure used by the Federal Reserve for its 2% target rose 3.7% in June on a year-over-year basis.

In June 2026, the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index, which serves as the primary inflation indicator for the Federal Reserve, rose 3.7% on a year-over-year basis. This figure represented a decrease from the 4.1% recorded in May 2026.

While the headline PCE price index decreased by 0.1% month-over-month in June, the core PCE index—which excludes food and energy—rose 0.1% for the month. The core PCE also saw a year-over-year increase of 3.3%, down from 3.4% in May.

The US Federal Reserve held its benchmark interest rate steady in a range of 3.5% to 3.75% at its meeting.

The Federal Reserve held its benchmark interest rate steady in a range of 3.5% to 3.75% at its meeting in late June 2026. Three Fed presidents dissented, preferring to raise rates by a quarter percentage point: Lorie Logan (Dallas Fed), Beth Hammack (Cleveland Fed), and Neel Kashkari (Minneapolis Fed).

Following the meeting, the yield on the two-year US Treasury was around 4.25%, signaling two rate hikes, while the yield on the 10-year Treasury was around 4.3%. The US personal saving rate stood at 2.7% in June 2026.

Fed Chair Kevin Warsh indicated that cooler June inflation data did not factor significantly into the decision to hold rates, and noted that he considers a range of inflation measures beyond the PCE.

US inflation has remained above the Federal Reserve's 2% target for more than five years.

For more than five years, inflation in the United States has remained above the 2% target set by the Federal Reserve.