U.S. labor market softening and Fed policy response
The developments in this story so far, most recent first.
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Development
Markets Rally on Weak Jobs Report | Closing Bell
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Breaking
U.S. economy unexpectedly lost 23,000 jobs in July
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· date approximate Background
In June 2026, nonfarm payroll growth was initially reported as 57,000 but later revised downward to 20,000.
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· date approximate Background
In June 2026, the CME FedWatch Tool indicated a 70%+ probability of a September rate hike based on strong prior employment data.
During June 2026, the CME FedWatch Tool indicated that there was a 67% probability of the US Federal Reserve raising interest rates in September.
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· date approximate Background
In May 2026, nonfarm payroll growth was revised downward from 129,000 to 63,000.
In May 2026, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that nonfarm payroll growth was revised downward from an initial gain of 129,000 to 63,000 jobs.
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· date approximate Background
The Federal Reserve maintained high interest rates through early 2026 amid persistent inflation concerns.
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· date approximate Background
In February 2026, the U.S. economy lost 156,000 nonfarm payroll jobs, the last negative print before July.
Ahead of the recent shifts in the labor market, the U.S. economy recorded a loss of 156,000 nonfarm payroll jobs in February 2026. This period represented the last instance of negative jobs data prior to July.