Coinbase is set to report second-quarter results on Thursday after the market close, with analysts trimming forecasts as spot trading volumes declined across the crypto industry during the period. [claim:1][claim:2]

Major cryptocurrencies suffered significant losses in Q2: Bitcoin dropped roughly 14% and Ether fell about 25%. [claim:3][claim:4] Although June showed some improvement, it was not enough to offset weakness in April and May. [claim:5] As of Wednesday, Coinbase shares traded around 1.7% lower at $165, continuing to hit resistance at a key level after hitting a new low in June and reversing higher in July on hopes of crypto legislation. [claim:26][claim:27][claim:29]

$152B

Barclays analyst Benjamin Budish estimates Coinbase processed roughly $152 billion in trading volume during Q2, below the Street's expectation of about $178 billion.

Barclays, Benchmark, Clear Street and Compass Point all cut estimates ahead of the earnings report, citing lower spot trading activity. [claim:6] Barclays projects revenue near the lower end of Coinbase's guidance, while Benchmark analyst Mark Palmer reduced his EBITDA forecast to $377 million. [claim:10][claim:14] Clear Street analyst Owen Lau projects approximately $160 billion in trading volume and $301 million in adjusted EBITDA, and Compass Point expects revenue to slightly miss consensus but EBITDA roughly in line. [claim:9][claim:11]

Subscription and services revenue—including interest income from USDC, staking rewards, custody fees, and Coinbase One subscriptions—is expected to provide ballast. [claim:12][claim:13] However, Compass Point argues the segment could land below the midpoint of management's guidance due to weaker crypto prices and slower stablecoin growth. [claim:15]

Prediction markets have emerged as one of Coinbase's fastest-growing businesses, boosted by increased activity around sporting events. [claim:16] Barclays believes prediction markets are becoming a meaningful contributor, and Clear Street sees them as a long-term growth driver. [claim:17][claim:18] Compass Point warns that investors may overestimate their profitability because Coinbase records gross revenue while sharing economics with Kalshi, making the net contribution smaller. [claim:19]

Coinbase's international perpetual futures business and its acquisition of Deribit expose the company to the larger global derivatives market. [claim:20] Analysts generally view derivatives as a long-term opportunity, though they contributed little to offset weaker spot volumes in Q2. [claim:21] Retail participation in crypto remained muted during the quarter, and crypto markets stayed under pressure through most of Q2. [claim:31][claim:32]

Legislative Landscape

The Digital Asset Market Clarity Act, which would establish a regulatory framework for digital assets in the U.S., hit a snag in the Senate. [claim:22][claim:28] Benchmark believes recent movement on ethics provisions has materially improved the odds of Senate passage. [claim:23] But Barclays warns the legislative calendar is tight and competing priorities could delay the bill. [claim:24] Compass Point adds that the Senate timetable leaves little room before the August recess and warns that Coinbase's valuation could come under pressure if legislation stalls. [claim:25]