Coinbase is set to report second-quarter results on Thursday after the market close, with analysts trimming forecasts as spot trading volumes declined across the crypto industry during the period.

Major cryptocurrencies suffered significant losses in Q2: Bitcoin dropped roughly 14% and Ether fell about 25%. Although June showed some improvement, it was not enough to offset weakness in April and May. As of Wednesday, Coinbase shares traded around 1.7% lower at $165, continuing to hit resistance at a key level after hitting a new low in June and reversing higher in July on hopes of crypto legislation.

$152B

Barclays analyst Benjamin Budish estimates Coinbase processed roughly $152 billion in trading volume during Q2, below the Street's expectation of about $178 billion.

Barclays, Benchmark, Clear Street and Compass Point all cut estimates ahead of the earnings report, citing lower spot trading activity. Barclays projects revenue near the lower end of Coinbase's guidance, while Benchmark analyst Mark Palmer reduced his EBITDA forecast to $377 million. Clear Street analyst Owen Lau projects approximately $160 billion in trading volume and $301 million in adjusted EBITDA, and Compass Point expects revenue to slightly miss consensus but EBITDA roughly in line.

Subscription and services revenue—including interest income from USDC, staking rewards, custody fees, and Coinbase One subscriptions—is expected to provide ballast. However, Compass Point argues the segment could land below the midpoint of management's guidance due to weaker crypto prices and slower stablecoin growth.

Prediction markets have emerged as one of Coinbase's fastest-growing businesses, boosted by increased activity around sporting events. Barclays believes prediction markets are becoming a meaningful contributor, and Clear Street sees them as a long-term growth driver. Compass Point warns that investors may overestimate their profitability because Coinbase records gross revenue while sharing economics with Kalshi, making the net contribution smaller.

Coinbase's international perpetual futures business and its acquisition of Deribit expose the company to the larger global derivatives market. Analysts generally view derivatives as a long-term opportunity, though they contributed little to offset weaker spot volumes in Q2. Retail participation in crypto remained muted during the quarter, and crypto markets stayed under pressure through most of Q2.

Legislative Landscape

The Digital Asset Market Clarity Act, which would establish a regulatory framework for digital assets in the U.S., hit a snag in the Senate. Benchmark believes recent movement on ethics provisions has materially improved the odds of Senate passage. But Barclays warns the legislative calendar is tight and competing priorities could delay the bill. Compass Point adds that the Senate timetable leaves little room before the August recess and warns that Coinbase's valuation could come under pressure if legislation stalls.