Bullion faces pressure from a rising US dollar, elevated Treasury yields, and growing expectations of a Federal Reserve rate hike, despite ongoing geopolitical tensions.
Gold prices extended their decline, falling 1.93% to $4,049, as a strengthening US dollar and rising Treasury yields offset safe-haven demand from escalating Middle East tensions. The yellow metal broke below key support levels, dropping more than $100 from recent highs.
Technical Breakdown
Gold broke below the prior bullish structure low at $4,084, confirming a bearish Change of Character (CHoCH). The RSI plunged from 48 to 35, and the daily MACD golden cross signal failed. Key resistance levels include $4,060-$4,080 and $4,100-$4,120, while immediate support lies at $4,020-$4,030 and the psychological $4,000 level.
Gold remains beneath the Ichimoku Cloud on the H1 timeframe, and the 100-day and 50-day EMAs are bearishly crossed, with price trading below both. The weekly RSI is at 37.5, and the daily RSI is 43.4, indicating persistent bearish momentum.
Macro Headwinds
The US Dollar Index reached a near-one-month high, and the 10-year Treasury yield hit year-to-date highs near 4.64-4.65%. CME interest rate tools indicate a 53.5% probability of a 25-basis-point rate hike in September, though conflicting estimates range up to 81%. The Federal Reserve entered its pre-meeting blackout period on July 18 until July 30, with officials signaling that a single month of declining inflation is insufficient and the option to resume rate hikes remains.
Geopolitical Tensions Provide Limited Support
Military escalation expanded to two chokepoints simultaneously: the Strait of Hormuz and the Bab el-Mandeb. CENTCOM completed its 13th consecutive night of operations against Iranian territory, destroying command centers and drone facilities. Tehran retaliated by bombarding US bases in Kuwait, Bahrain, and Jordan, while the Houthis hit two Saudi oil tankers in the Red Sea. Crude oil prices reached new highs since June 11, with Brent pushing toward $100 per barrel. However, gold's safe-haven bid failed to offset pressure from yields and the dollar.
A proposed 10-day US-Iran truce was reported, but it was reported that Tehran rejected an Omani proposal for joint regional management of the Strait of Hormuz. President Trump reported 'good talks' with Iran but warned of forceful response if talks fail.
Outlook
Gold's primary downside target is $3,970, with further support at $3,900 and $3,800. A H1 close above $4,090 would invalidate the bearish setup. The market awaits the Federal Reserve decision on July 28-29 and key US GDP and PCE data on July 30. Analysts note that gold's pattern mirrors the mid-2020 bear cycle that extended to late 2022.
Updates
The US Federal Reserve maintained interest rates at 3.50%–3.75% following a 6-3 vote, with three members opting for an immediate 25-basis-point increase. Meanwhile, the US 10-year Treasury yield rose by approximately 7.5 basis points toward 4.75%, and August gold futures closed down 1.3% at 4,107 dollars. Additionally, the World Gold Council reported that global gold demand reached 2,522 tonnes in the first half of the year, a 2% increase compared to the previous period, with a record monetary value of 380 billion dollars.
The US Federal Reserve maintained interest rates at 3.50%–3.75% in a 6-3 vote, as three members advocated for an immediate 25-basis-point hike. August gold futures closed 1.3% lower at 4,107 dollars, while the US 10-year Treasury yield climbed 7.5 basis points to near 4.75%. Furthermore, the World Gold Council reported a record 380 billion dollars in gold demand for the first half of the year, with total global demand rising 2% to 2,522 tonnes compared to the same period last year.
The Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged at 3.50%–3.75% in a 6-3 vote, with three members favoring an immediate 25-basis-point increase. Following the announcement, spot gold reached a one-week high of $4,100.42, while August gold futures edged up 0.3% to $4,047.20. Additionally, the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield rose by approximately 7.5 basis points to approach 4.75%.
The Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged at 3.50%–3.75% in a 6-3 vote, with three members favoring an immediate 25-basis-point increase. Following the decision, spot gold reached a one-week high of $4,100.42, while August gold futures edged up 0.3% to $4,047.20. Additionally, the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield rose by approximately 7.5 basis points to approach 4.75%.
The Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged at 3.50%–3.75% in a 6-3 vote, with three members opting for an immediate 25-basis-point hike. Following the announcement, spot gold reached a one-week high of $4,100.42. Additionally, the US 10-year Treasury yield increased by approximately 7.5 basis points to approach 4.75%, while August gold futures closed down 1.3% at 4,107 dollars.
The Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged at 3.50%–3.75% in a 6-3 vote, with three members advocating for an immediate 25-basis-point increase. Following the announcement, spot gold reached a one-week high of $4,100.42, while August gold futures edged up 0.3% to $4,047.20. Additionally, the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield rose approximately 7.5 basis points toward 4.75%.
The Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged at 3.50%–3.75% in a 6-3 vote, with three members favoring an immediate 25-basis-point increase. Following the announcement, spot gold reached a one-week high of $4,100.42, while August gold futures edged up 0.3% to $4,047.20. Additionally, the US 10-year Treasury yield rose approximately 7.5 basis points to approach 4.75%.
The Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged at 3.50%–3.75% in a 6-3 vote, with three members advocating for an immediate 25-basis-point increase. Following the announcement, spot gold reached a one-week high of $4,100.42, while gold futures edged up 0.3% to $4,047.20. Additionally, the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield rose approximately 7.5 basis points to approach 4.75%.
The Federal Reserve maintained interest rates at 3.50%–3.75% following a 6-3 vote, with three members favoring an immediate 25-basis-point hike. Following the announcement, spot gold reached a one-week high of $4,100.42, while August gold futures edged up 0.3% to $4,047.20. Additionally, the US 10-year Treasury yield rose approximately 7.5 basis points to approach 4.75%.
The Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged at 3.50%–3.75% with a 6-3 vote, though three members pushed for an immediate 25-basis-point increase. Following the announcement, spot gold reached a one-week high of $4,100.42, while August gold futures edged up 0.3% to $4,047.20. Additionally, the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield rose approximately 7.5 basis points toward 4.75%.
The Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged at 3.50%–3.75% with a 6-3 vote, though three members signaled for an immediate 25-basis-point increase. Following the announcement, spot gold reached a one-week high of $4,100.42, while gold futures for August delivery edged up 0.3% to $4,047.20. Additionally, the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield rose by approximately 7.5 basis points to approach 4.75%.
The Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged at 3.50%–3.75% in a 6-3 vote, with three members favoring an immediate 25-basis-point increase. Following the announcement, spot gold reached a one-week high of $4,100.42, while August gold futures closed down 1.3% at $4,107. Additionally, the US 10-year Treasury yield rose approximately 7.5 basis points to approach 4.75%.
The US Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged at 3.50%–3.75% following a 6-3 vote, where three members advocated for an immediate 25-basis-point increase. Despite the policy decision, spot gold reached a one-week high of $4,100.42, while August gold futures edged up 0.3% to $4,047.20. Additionally, the US 10-year Treasury yield increased by approximately 7.5 basis points to approach 4.75%.
The Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged at 3.50%–3.75% in a 6-3 vote, with three members favoring an immediate 25-basis-point hike. Following the announcement, spot gold reached a one-week high of $4,100.42, while August gold futures edged up 0.3% to $4,047.20. Additionally, the US 10-year Treasury yield rose by approximately 7.5 basis points to approach 4.75%.
The Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged at 3.50%–3.75% in a 6-3 vote, with three members voting for an immediate 25-basis-point hike. Following the policy announcement, spot gold reached a one-week high of $4,100.42, while gold futures for August delivery closed down 1.3% at 4,107 dollars. Additionally, the US 10-year Treasury yield rose approximately 7.5 basis points to approach 4.75%.
The Federal Reserve held interest rates unchanged at 3.50%–3.75% following a 6-3 vote, with three members pushing for an immediate 25-basis-point increase. Following the announcement, spot gold reached a one-week high of $4,100.42, while August gold futures edged up 0.3% to $4,047.20. Additionally, the US 10-year Treasury yield rose by approximately 7.5 basis points to approach 4.75%.
The Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged at 3.50%–3.75% following a 6-3 vote, with three members voting for an immediate 25-basis-point increase. Despite the recent volatility, gold completed July with an approximate 0.7% increase, while spot gold reached a one-week high of $4,100.42 following the policy announcement. Additionally, the World Gold Council reported that global gold demand in the first half of the year reached 2,522 tonnes, marking a 2% increase compared to the previous year.
The Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged at 3.50%–3.75% in a 6-3 vote, with three members advocating for an immediate 25-basis-point increase. Following the announcement, spot gold reached a one-week high of $4,100.42, while August gold futures edged up 0.3% to $4,047.20. Additionally, the US 10-year Treasury yield rose approximately 7.5 basis points to approach 4.75%.
The Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged at 3.50%–3.75% in a 6-3 vote, with three members favoring an immediate 25-basis-point increase. Following the announcement, spot gold reached a one-week high of $4,100.42, while August gold futures edged up 0.3% to $4,047.20. Additionally, the US 10-year Treasury yield rose approximately 7.5 basis points to approach 4.75%.
The Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged at 3.50%–3.75% in a 6-3 vote, with three members favoring an immediate 25-basis-point increase. Following the announcement, spot gold reached a one-week high of $4,100.42, while August gold futures edged up 0.3% to $4,047.20. Additionally, the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield rose by approximately 7.5 basis points to approach 4.75%.
The Federal Reserve kept interest rates at 3.50%–3.75% following a 6-3 vote, with three members favoring an immediate 25-basis-point hike. Despite the pressure, spot gold reached a one-week high of $4,100.42 after the announcement, and gold completed July with an overall increase of approximately 0.7%. Additionally, the US 10-year Treasury yield rose by about 7.5 basis points to approach 4.75%.
The Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged at 3.50%–3.75% in a 6-3 vote, with three members advocating for an immediate 25-basis-point hike. Following the policy announcement, spot gold reached a one-week high of $4,100.42, while August gold futures edged up 0.3% to $4,047.20. Additionally, the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield rose approximately 7.5 basis points to approach 4.75%.
The Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged at 3.50%–3.75% in a 6-3 vote, with three members favoring an immediate 25-basis-point increase. Following the announcement, spot gold reached a one-week high of $4,100.42, while August gold futures edged up 0.3% to $4,047.20. Additionally, the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield rose by approximately 7.5 basis points to nearly 4.75%.
The Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged at 3.50%–3.75% in a 6-3 vote, with three members voting for an immediate 25-basis-point hike. Following the policy announcement, spot gold reached a one-week high of $4,100.42, while August gold futures edged up 0.3% to $4,047.20. Additionally, the US 10-year Treasury yield rose approximately 7.5 basis points to approach 4.75%.
The Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged at 3.50%–3.75% in a 6-3 vote, with three members advocating for an immediate 25-basis-point hike. Following the announcement, spot gold reached a one-week high of $4,100.42, while August gold futures saw a slight uptick of 0.3% to $4,047.20. Additionally, the US 10-year Treasury yield rose by approximately 7.5 basis points to approach 4.75%.
The Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged at 3.50%–3.75% in a 6-3 vote, with three members favoring an immediate 25-basis-point increase. Following the policy announcement, spot gold reached a one-week high of $4,100.42, while gold futures for August delivery closed the day down 1.3% at $4,107. Additionally, the US 10-year Treasury yield rose approximately 7.5 basis points to approach 4.75%.
The Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged at 3.50%–3.75% in a 6-3 vote, though three members advocated for an immediate 25-basis-point hike. Following the policy announcement, spot gold reached a one-week high of $4,100.42, while August gold futures edged up 0.3% to $4,047.20. Additionally, the US 10-year Treasury yield increased by approximately 7.5 basis points to approach 4.75%.
The US Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged at 3.50%–3.75% following a 6-3 vote, with three members pushing for an immediate 25-basis-point hike. Following the announcement, spot gold reached a one-week high of $4,100.42, while August gold futures edged up 0.3% to $4,047.20. Additionally, the US 10-year Treasury yield rose by approximately 7.5 basis points to approach 4.75%.
The Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged at 3.50%–3.75% following a 6-3 vote, with three members advocating for an immediate 25-basis-point hike. Despite the pressure, gold futures for August delivery closed down 1.3% at $4,107, while spot gold reached a one-week high of $4,100.42 following the policy announcement. Additionally, the US 10-year Treasury yield rose by approximately 7.5 basis points to approach 4.75%.
The Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged at 3.50%–3.75% following a 6-3 vote, with three members advocating for an immediate 25-basis-point increase. Despite the pressure, gold completed July with an approximate 0.7% increase, and spot gold reached a one-week high of $4,100.42 following the policy announcement. Additionally, the World Gold Council reported that global gold demand for the first half of the year rose by 2% to 2,522 tonnes, reaching a record monetary value of $380 billion.
The Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged at 3.50%–3.75% following a 6-3 vote, with three members favoring an immediate 25-basis-point increase. Despite recent volatility, gold completed July with a 0.7% increase, although August gold futures closed down 1.3% at $4,107. Additionally, the World Gold Council reported that global gold demand rose 2% in the first half of the year to 2,522 tonnes, with a record monetary value of $380 billion.
The Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged at 3.50%–3.75% in a 6-3 vote, with three members advocating for an immediate 25-basis-point hike. Following the announcement, spot gold reached a one-week high of $4,100.42, while gold futures for August delivery closed down 1.3% at 4,107 dollars. Additionally, the US 10-year Treasury yield rose approximately 7.5 basis points toward 4.75%.
The US Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged at 3.50%–3.75% following a 6-3 vote, with three members voting for an immediate 25-basis-point increase. Following the announcement, spot gold reached a one-week high of $4,100.42, while August gold futures edged up 0.3% to $4,047.20. Additionally, the US 10-year Treasury yield rose approximately 7.5 basis points to approach 4.75%.
The Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged at 3.50%–3.75% with a 6-3 vote, though three members advocated for an immediate 25-basis-point increase. Following the announcement, spot gold reached a one-week high of $4,100.42, while gold futures edged up 0.3% to $4,047.20. Additionally, the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield rose by approximately 7.5 basis points to approach 4.75%.
The Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged at 3.50%–3.75% in a 6-3 vote, with three members advocating for an immediate 25-basis-point increase. Following the announcement, spot gold reached a one-week high of $4,100.42, while August gold futures edged up 0.3% to $4,047.20. Additionally, the US 10-year Treasury yield rose approximately 7.5 basis points to approach 4.75%.
The Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged at 3.50%–3.75% following a 6-3 vote, with three members specifically voting for an immediate 25-basis-point increase. Despite recent volatility, gold completed July with an approximate 0.7% increase, and spot gold reached a one-week high of $4,100.42 following the policy announcement. Additionally, the US 10-year Treasury yield rose by approximately 7.5 basis points to approach 4.75%.
The Federal Reserve maintained interest rates at 3.50%–3.75% following a 6-3 vote, with three members advocating for an immediate 25-basis-point increase. Despite recent volatility, gold concluded July with an approximate 0.7% monthly gain, even as the US 10-year Treasury yield rose by 7.5 basis points to nearly 4.75%. Additionally, the World Gold Council reported that first-half global demand reached 2,522 tonnes, a 2% increase year-over-year, with a record monetary value of 380 billion dollars.
The Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged at 3.50%–3.75% in a 6-3 vote, with three members favoring an immediate 25-basis-point hike. Following the announcement, spot gold reached a one-week high of $4,100.42, while August gold futures edged up 0.3% to $4,047.20. Additionally, the US 10-year Treasury yield rose approximately 7.5 basis points to approach 4.75%.
The Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged at 3.50%–3.75% following a 6-3 vote, with three members advocating for an immediate 25-basis-point increase. Amid the policy decision, spot gold reached a one-week high of $4,100.42, while August gold futures edged up 0.3% to $4,047.20. Additionally, the US 10-year Treasury yield rose approximately 7.5 basis points to approach 4.75%.
The Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged at 3.50%–3.75% in a 6-3 vote, with three members favoring an immediate 25-basis-point increase. Following the announcement, spot gold reached a one-week high of $4,100.42, while August gold futures edged up 0.3% to $4,047.20. Additionally, the US 10-year Treasury yield rose approximately 7.5 basis points to approach 4.75%.
The Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged at 3.50%–3.75% with a 6-3 vote, though three members voted for an immediate 25-basis-point increase. Following the policy announcement, spot gold reached a one-week high of $4,100.42, while gold futures edged up 0.3% to $4,047.20. Additionally, the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield rose approximately 7.5 basis points to nearly 4.75%.
The Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged at 3.50%–3.75% following a 6-3 vote, with three members advocating for an immediate 25-basis-point hike. Despite recent pressure, gold completed July with an approximate 0.7% increase, and spot gold reached a one-week high of $4,100.42 following the policy announcement. Additionally, the US 10-year Treasury yield rose by roughly 7.5 basis points to approach 4.75%.
The Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged at 3.50%–3.75% in a 6-3 vote, with three members favoring an immediate 25-basis-point increase. Following the announcement, spot gold reached a one-week high of $4,100.42, while August gold futures edged up 0.3% to $4,047.20. Additionally, the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield rose by approximately 7.5 basis points to approach 4.75%.
The Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged at 3.50%–3.75% in a 6-3 vote, with three members advocating for an immediate 25-basis-point increase. Following the announcement, spot gold reached a one-week high of $4,100.42, while August gold futures edged up 0.3% to $4,047.20. Additionally, the US 10-year Treasury yield rose approximately 7.5 basis points to approach 4.75%.
The Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged at 3.50%–3.75% following a 6-3 vote, with three members advocating for an immediate 25-basis-point increase. Despite recent volatility, gold completed July with a monthly gain of approximately 0.7%, even as the US 10-year Treasury yield climbed towards 4.75%. Additionally, the World Gold Council reported that global gold demand rose 2% in the first half of the year, reaching 2,522 tonnes with a record monetary value of $380 billion.
The Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged at 3.50%–3.75% in a 6-3 vote, with three members advocating for an immediate 25-basis-point hike. Following the announcement, spot gold reached a one-week high of $4,100.42, while August gold futures edged up 0.3% to $4,047.20. Additionally, the US 10-year Treasury yield rose approximately 7.5 basis points to nearly 4.75%.
The Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged at 3.50%–3.75% in a 6-3 vote, with three members favoring an immediate 25-basis-point hike. Following the announcement, spot gold reached a one-week high of $4,100.42, while gold futures for August delivery closed down 1.3% at $4,107. Additionally, the US 10-year Treasury yield rose by approximately 7.5 basis points to approach 4.75%.
Despite gold's recent dip below $4,050, spot prices rebounded to a one-week high of $4,100.42 after the Federal Reserve held rates steady at 3.50%–3.75%—a decision made by a 6-3 vote, with three members advocating an immediate hike—while BCA Research noted that the worst of real rate pressure may be over and the dollar could soon support gold, not hinder it; global demand hit a record $380 billion in H1, and gold ended July up 0.7% despite intramonth volatility.
Despite gold falling below $4,050 earlier, it rebounded to a one-week high of $4,100.42 after the Federal Reserve held rates steady at 3.50%–3.75% in a 6-3 vote, with three members advocating for an immediate hike; BCA Research noted the worst pressure from real rates may be over and the dollar could turn supportive, while spot gold ended July up 0.7% despite intraday volatility, and global demand hit a record $380 billion in the first half of the year, according to the World Gold Council.
