US Federal Reserve 2026 monetary policy cycle
The developments in this story so far, most recent first.
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· date approximate · Development
US economy grows 1.5% in Q2, missing forecasts
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· Development
JPMorgan Brings Forward Fed Rate Hike Forecast to December 2026
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· Development
FED Temmuz 2026 Faiz Kararı Ne Zaman Açıklanacak?
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· date approximate · Background
The US Federal Reserve held its policy rate steady at its July meeting.
The US Federal Reserve held its policy rate steady at the July 28-29, 2026 FOMC meeting, keeping the federal funds rate target range at 3.50%–3.75% [1][2][3][4][30][38][57][79]. The decision marked the fifth consecutive meeting in 2026 without a rate change [25][31].
The vote was 9-3, with FOMC members Beth M. Hammack, Neel Kashkari, and Lorie K. Logan dissenting in favor of a 25-basis-point rate increase [35][76]. The dissenting members argued that high inflation warranted tighter policy [36].
The Fed's statement reinforced a cautious stance on inflation, noting that supply-side shocks, especially in energy, were driving price increases, and reiterated its commitment to price stability [34][37]. Chair Kevin Warsh emphasized the 2% inflation target but gave no clear policy guidance [42][80].
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· date approximate · Background
The Fed held the federal funds rate unchanged at its June 2026 meeting.
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· date approximate · Background
US GDP grew at a 2.1% annual rate in Q1 2026.
The US economy grew at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 2.1% in the first quarter of 2026 [40]. The reading came as inflation, which had been easing, accelerated after geopolitical events in late February [52].
Growth slowed sharply in the second quarter to a 1.5% annual rate [38], missing the 1.8% forecast by economists [39]. In response, the Federal Reserve held its policy rate at 3.50%–3.75% through its July 2026 meeting [21], despite core PCE inflation remaining at 3.3% annually in June [42]. Three FOMC members dissented and voted for a rate hike [26].
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· date approximate · Background
The U.S. and Israel attacked Iran, causing a surge in energy prices.
In late February 2026, the United States and Israel attacked Iran, an event that triggered a sudden surge in energy prices. This military offensive caused energy and fertilizer prices to skyrocket, contributing to an acceleration in inflation after it had previously been easing heading into the year.
The resulting energy shock and the ongoing war in the Middle East have shook energy prices and supply chains, posing risks to economic growth. Federal Reserve officials have expressed concern that the spike in energy costs could spill over into the broader economy.
As the conflict progressed, renewed hostilities and renewed military offensives helped drive energy prices back up, with average gasoline prices rising above $4 a gallon.