Bitcoin entered August amid technical consolidation, following a July monthly candle that closed near the middle of its range. The July candle also approached the formation of an inverted hammer pattern.
On the 4-hour timeframe, Bitcoin's 50, 100, and 200 EMA are currently in a bearish crossover. The asset is in a short-term bearish trend and is consolidating near key 4-hour and daily support zones.
Technical analysis suggests specific price boundaries for the asset. Key resistance on the 4-hour and 1-hour timeframes is located between $63,430 and $65,419, while the first key support in those same timeframes lies between $62,490 and $62,693. On the daily chart, key support is identified at $61,303.
Analyst perspectives and market structure
An S1 analyst is currently holding a short position on Bitcoin, with invalidation set above the July high. This analyst noted that a daily bullish Market Structure Break (MSB) around the $67,300 area would serve as the first meaningful bullish signal.
The daily chart also shows a potential bear pennant that formed after a sharp decline in June. A decisive daily close below the lower boundary of this pennant, currently around $61,000–$62,000, could confirm a bearish continuation. Measuring the June flagpole from the likely breakdown point indicates a downside target near $52,200.
An S3 analyst noted that the 50 Month SMA has historically acted as a floor during bear markets.
Historical August performance
Historical data for August shows five green months and 10 red months. While all five green Augusts occurred after a green July, it has also been noted that five red Augusts occurred following a green July as well.
Average Bitcoin return in August since 2013
According to CoinGlass, Bitcoin has produced an average August return of 1.12% since 2013, though the median August return is minus 7.49%. Variations in performance are also seen during US midterm-election years, where Bitcoin fell 17.55% in August 2014, 9.27% in 2018, and 13.88% in 2022, resulting in an average loss of roughly 13.6% during those cycles.
Macroeconomic influences
Upcoming economic indicators are expected to influence market sentiment. The July jobs report and inflation readings are expected to impact expectations for the Federal Reserve's September meeting. Additionally, the Jackson Hole symposium in late August may cause volatility if Fed officials signal that interest rates will remain higher for longer.
