Bitcoin's price eased toward $64,000 ahead of the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) report for July, which is scheduled for release on August 12. The cryptocurrency has been trading in a range between $63,000 and $65,000, with recent data showing a decline of approximately 2.4% from its intraday peak.
Earlier in the week, Bitcoin reached a high of $65,308 during the first trades, but then fell to $63,771 following increased selling pressure. In recent transactions, it was trading around $64,050 USD. The $65,000 level is considered critical for the short-term outlook, as it has acted as resistance in the $65,000–$65,300 and $65,300–$65,500 zones.
According to market analyst Shavyfxhub, the BTCUSD 4H chart price is in a decision zone around 64.8k–65.2k. The analyst noted that Bitcoin's price has been making higher lows from the July bottom, with immediate resistance identified at 65.2k–66.1k and major resistance at 67.31k. Support levels are seen at 63.55k, 62.5k, and 61.0k.
Short-term technical indicators suggest a mixed picture. Bitcoin's short-term structure is improving as it holds above the EMA34 (around 64,445) and the EMA89 (around 64,243). However, on the H4 timeframe, BTCUSD is moving within a consolidation structure between 62,200 and 65,500 levels, with a tactical bias that is bearish. The previous recovery rally attempt stalled in the 65,200–65,400 range, while the 65,200–65,500 range acts as a Resistance / Supply Zone. The 63,600–63,800 range serves as Support / Demand Zone. A high volume cluster (High Volume Node) is visible in the 64,800–65,000 range.
Bitcoin is also contained by a long-term trend line, the 50-month exponential moving average (EMA) at $65,827. Michaël van de Poppe told X followers that the recent correction was likely a liquidity grab from leveraged longs, suggesting that a slight bounce upwards to $64,500 would indicate the correction is not a cascade. The market is also facing a potential 'long squeeze' due to high open interest in derivatives.
Geopolitical tensions have added to market uncertainty. Weakening expectations regarding the full reopening of the Strait of Hormuz between the US and Iran led to sharp movements in energy markets. Brent crude oil tested the 88 USD level, and US crude oil prices rose above 82 USD, with oil prices rising by approximately 5% in the previous session. Rising energy costs may increase price pressures in the US and lead the Fed to be more cautious regarding interest rate cuts.
$244.4 million inflows
US spot Bitcoin ETFs saw a combined inflow of $244.4 million on Aug. 5.
Meanwhile, investor interest in gold is resurging. The Kobeissi Letter stated that investor appetite for gold is back, with the SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) ETF attracting daily retail inflows of $50 million on Aug. 5, and a total inflow of $637 million that day. Investors have added +$1.4 billion to $GLD in August. Ki Young Ju, CEO of CryptoQuant, stated that 'Bitcoin–gold correlation is back to digital-gold-era levels'. Gold (XAU/USD) hit its highest level in nine weeks at $4,435 per ounce on Tuesday.
In regulatory news, Thailand has implemented a 0% tax on cryptocurrency transactions to attract investors. The Kobeissi Letter predicts a 75% probability that the CLARITY Act bill will not pass the US Senate this fall.
Bitcoin's market dynamics also show strong inflows. Approximately 854 million USD in net inflows occurred in US-traded spot Bitcoin ETFs last week, among the strongest weekly inflows recorded since mid-April. Bitcoin's total market capitalization decreased by 1% to $2.28 trillion, while its market share remained stable at 56.5%.
The BTC/USD pair finished down 1.5% on Monday, and oil prices surged by 5% in the previous session. As traders await the CPI report, which is expected to show a decline in annual inflation to 3.4% from 3.5% in June, the cryptocurrency market remains on edge, with key levels in focus.
Updates
Following the release of July CPI data showing a 0.1% monthly rise and a 3.4% annual increase—above the Fed’s 2% target—Bitcoin edged up 0.33% to $63,750, despite the broader crypto market cap declining to $2.17 trillion; the jobs report revealing a surprise 23,000-job loss in July reinforced expectations for Fed rate cuts by year-end, though Bitcoin remains trapped between $62,000 support and $67,000 resistance, with market odds now pricing only a 17% chance of reaching $70,000 this month.
Despite in-line July CPI data showing a 0.1% monthly rise and 3.4% annual increase—matching forecasts and slightly below June’s 3.5%—Bitcoin dropped below $63,500 immediately after the release, reversing intraday gains and failing to rally as expected; this muted reaction, coupled with weakening support at $63,000 and a 4H bearish structure forming after rejection at $65,200, has shifted sentiment toward further downside, with key support now at $63,200–$63,500 and resistance at $64,600–$65,000, while options markets show higher premiums for downside protection near $60,000 than upside strikes near $70,000.
Despite an in-line July CPI report showing a 0.1% monthly rise and 3.4% annual increase—matching forecasts and slightly below June’s 3.5%—Bitcoin dropped below $63,500 post-release, failing to rally as expected; the market’s reaction, coupled with a 44% probability of a September Fed rate hike (down from 48%) and persistent resistance at $65,000–$65,500, has reinforced bearish sentiment, with Rekt Capital noting progressively weakening support near $63,000 and Bitfinex Alpha reporting six failed attempts to close above $65,000 since July 26.
Despite in-line July CPI data showing a 0.1% monthly rise and 3.4% annual increase—matching forecasts and slightly easing from June’s 3.5%—Bitcoin dropped below $63,500 post-release, contradicting expectations of a relief rally; the price now faces resistance at $64,400–$64,650, with Rekt Capital noting progressively weakening support at $63,000 as bounce percentages decline from 6.27% to 1.15%, while options markets show a material premium for downside protection near $60,000 versus upside strikes near $70,000.
Despite in-line July CPI data showing a 0.1% monthly rise and 3.4% annual increase—matching forecasts and slightly below June’s 3.5%—Bitcoin dropped below $63,500 post-release, reversing early gains and failing to rally as expected, while options markets priced a heavier premium for downside protection near $60,000 than upside strikes near $70,000, signaling persistent bearish sentiment despite the dovish jobs report and reduced September rate hike odds to 44%.
Despite in-line July CPI data—0.1% monthly rise and 3.4% annual increase—Bitcoin dropped below $63,500 post-release, erasing intraday gains and reinforcing bearish sentiment, while options markets showed a material premium for downside protection near $60,000 versus upside strikes near $70,000, and Rekt Capital noted weakening support at ~$63,000 with bounce percentages declining from 6.27% to 1.15% over recent tests.
Despite in-line July CPI data showing a 0.1% monthly rise and 3.4% annual increase—matching forecasts and slightly below June’s 3.5%—Bitcoin dropped below $63,500 post-release, failing to rally as expected, with options markets now pricing a heavier premium for downside protection near $60,000 than upside strikes at $70,000, while analysts like Rekt Capital noted weakening support at $63,000 as bounce percentages declined from 6.27% to 1.15% over recent tests.
Despite in-line July CPI data showing a 0.1% monthly rise and 3.4% annual increase—matching forecasts and slightly below June’s 3.5%—Bitcoin dropped below $63,500 post-release, reversing early gains and failing to rally as expected, while options markets priced a heavier premium for downside protection near $60,000 than upside strikes near $70,000, signaling persistent bearish sentiment despite the dovish macro backdrop from the weak jobs report.
Despite in-line July CPI data showing a 0.1% monthly rise and 3.4% annual inflation—matching forecasts and slightly below June’s 3.5%—Bitcoin dropped below $63,500 post-report, reversing early gains and confirming a lack of relief rally, while options markets now price a material premium for downside protection near $60,000 versus upside strikes near $70,000, signaling persistent bearish sentiment despite the Fed’s reduced September rate hike probability to 44%.
Despite in-line July CPI data showing a 0.1% monthly rise and 3.4% annual increase—matching forecasts and slightly easing from June’s 3.5%—Bitcoin dropped below $63,500 post-release, reversing day’s gains and reinforcing bearish sentiment, as options markets priced a material premium for downside protection near $60,000 versus upside strikes near $70,000, and Rekt Capital noted weakening support at ~$63,000 with bounce percentages declining from 6.27% to 1.15% over recent tests.
Despite in-line July CPI data showing a 0.1% monthly rise and 3.4% annual increase—matching forecasts and slightly below June’s 3.5%—Bitcoin dropped below $63,500 post-release, contradicting expectations of a relief rally; traders now cite weakening $63K support, with Rekt Capital noting declining bounce percentages (6.27% → 1.15%) and the 50-month EMA at $65,827 acting as new resistance, while options markets show a material premium for downside protection near $60K versus upside strikes near $70K.
Despite in-line July CPI data showing a 0.1% monthly rise and 3.4% annual increase—matching forecasts and slightly below June’s 3.5%—Bitcoin dropped below $63,500 immediately after the release, failing to rally as expected; this reaction contrasted with prior market pricing of a potential relief move, and analysts noted persistent resistance at $65,000–$65,500, with Rekt Capital highlighting progressively weakening support near $63,000 as bounce strength declined from 6.27% to just 1.15% over recent tests.
Despite an in-line July CPI report showing a 0.1% monthly rise and 3.4% annual inflation—matching forecasts and slightly below June’s 3.5%—Bitcoin dropped below $63,500 post-release, reversing intraday gains and failing to rally as expected, with traders citing weakening support at $63,000, persistent resistance near $65,000, and a growing premium for downside options near $60,000 compared to upside strikes at $70,000.
