A combination of geopolitical conflict in the Middle East and the emergence of a powerful El Niño weather pattern is creating a complex situation for global food security. The conflict has also caused temporary supply bottlenecks for essential soil nutrients.
The conflict in the Middle East could drive additional millions of people into hunger by 2030. Currently, 266 million people are affected by acute hunger, with more than half of them residing in areas of armed conflict. The Democratic Republic of the Congo, Sudan, and Yemen are among the countries most severely affected by hunger due to conflict.
Researchers Jean-Michel Valantin, PhD and Fabrice Lollia describe the combination of the Middle East war and El Niño as a 'hyper-siege scenario'.
El Niño climate risks
The US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) stated there is a 63 percent probability that El Niño will be 'very strong' this year. NOAA also stated there is an approximately 80 percent chance that El Niño will be among the most intense ever measured. The climate think tank Berkeley Earth predicts this year's El Niño will be the strongest since records began. Temperatures in the Pacific are expected to rise by 3.6 degrees Celsius during the current El Niño.
The World Bank warned rice production in affected regions could decrease by this amount due to El Niño.
The UN Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) identifies the greatest risks from El Niño in the African Sahel, southern Africa, Southeast Asia, and the Central American 'Dry Corridor'. The FAO warned this month that there is a probability of more than 50 percent for drought periods in some of these regions in the coming months.
In India, which produces almost one third of the world's rice supply, rainfall in June was approximately 40 percent lower than usual. Maximo Torero, Chief Economist of the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO), stated, 'We are very concerned about El Niño and the delay of the monsoon... in India'.
Economic and industrial impacts
The economic implications of these shifts are significant. Goldman Sachs calculated that there could be a rise of nearly 16 percent in global food commodity prices next year.
JP Morgan warned that in connection with oil prices of 100 US dollars, food inflation could rise by 1.5 percentage points. JP Morgan also predicts that if oil prices exceed $120 per barrel, Ukrainian grain exports are blocked, and El Niño impacts harvests, food inflation could exceed 5 percent in 2027.
Beyond food, the climate phenomena impact industrial sectors. Valentin Vigier, ESG research lead at La Financière de l’Echiquier, noted that heatwaves strain power grids and that renewable energy production could decrease due to lower solar photovoltaic efficiency and droughts affecting hydropower. He also stated that previous El Niño episodes saw copper production decreases due to flooding in Chile and aluminum decreases due to drought in China.
Logistics have also been affected by climate patterns, such as in February 2023 when a major drought in the Panama Canal reduced daily boat transits from 38 to 22. In November 2023, a Japanese petrochemical company paid nearly 4 million dollars to secure a transit through the Panama Canal.
Agricultural productivity and hunger
Despite these risks, current data shows a mixed landscape. The world achieved the largest grain harvest in history last year. This year's grain harvest is expected to be slightly lower than last year but remains the second largest in history. Simone Bunse, senior researcher at the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), noted that improvements in agricultural productivity in India and Latin America have helped maintain food production and reduce malnutrition. Bunse also stated, 'We are observing improvements in agricultural productivity'.
However, FAO Chief Economist Maximo Torero warned of a 'cumulative effect' that could lead to a 'very complex situation' by the end of the year. He stated, 'Enough calories are produced worldwide to feed all people'.
The disruption of resources continues to be a factor in instability. Simone Bunse of SIPRI said conflict parties deliberately destroy farmland, livestock, water systems, food stores, and transport routes. Additionally, Jean-Michel Valantin warned that the upcoming crisis is particularly dangerous for the Democratic Republic of the Congo or the Indian Ocean face of Africa, as it exacerbates political tensions.
Updates
The UN World Food Programme warns that El Niño could push nearly 49 million more people into acute hunger, bringing the total number of those facing food insecurity to approximately 274 million by the end of next year. Projections indicate food insecurity may rise by 83% in Central America and 75% in Southern Africa, with regions including South America and the Caribbean potentially seeing over 12 million additional people affected. Furthermore, there is an 81% chance of a very strong El Niño developing, with Pacific temperatures expected to reach their highest levels since at least 1982.
The UN World Food Programme warns that El Niño could push an additional 49 million people into acute hunger by the end of next year, potentially raising the total number of people facing food insecurity to approximately 274 million. This risk includes projected increases in food insecurity of 83% in Central America and 75% in Southern Africa, with the latter facing significant impacts during the 2027-2028 lean season. Additionally, Pacific Ocean temperatures are on track to reach their highest levels since 1982, with an 81% chance of a very strong El Niño developing.
The UN World Food Programme warns that El Niño could push an additional 49 million people into acute hunger by the end of next year, potentially raising the total number of people facing acute food insecurity to approximately 274 million. Regional projections indicate food insecurity could surge by 83% in Central America and nearly 75% in Southern Africa, with Southern Africa, South America, and the Caribbean each facing more than 12 million additional people at risk. Furthermore, an 81% chance of a very strong El Niño has been reported, with Pacific Ocean temperatures potentially reaching their highest levels since at least 1982.
The UN World Food Programme warns that El Niño could push an additional 49 million people into acute hunger by the end of next year, potentially bringing the total number of people facing acute food insecurity to approximately 274 million. This crisis is expected to see food insecurity rise by 83% in Central America and nearly 75% in Southern Africa, with Southern Africa, South America, and the Caribbean each facing more than 12 million additional people in need. Furthermore, there is an 81% chance of a very strong El Niño developing, with Pacific Ocean temperatures projected to reach their highest levels since at least 1982.
The UN World Food Programme reports that the current El Niño is shaping up to be the strongest in at least 70 years, with Pacific Ocean temperatures on track to reach levels not seen since at least 1982. This phenomenon is projected to push nearly 49 million additional people into acute hunger by the end of next year, bringing the total number of people facing acute food insecurity to approximately 274 million. Regional impacts include food insecurity rises of 83% in Central America and nearly 75% in Southern Africa, while over 12 million additional people could face hunger in South America and the Caribbean.
The UN World Food Programme (WFP) reports that the current El Niño is shaping up to be the strongest in at least 70 years, with an 81% chance of developing into a very strong event. This phenomenon could push nearly 49 million more people into acute hunger by the end of next year, bringing the total number facing acute food insecurity to approximately 274 million. Regional forecasts indicate food insecurity could rise by 83% in Central America and 75% in Southern Africa, with Southern Africa, South America, and the Caribbean each potentially seeing over 12 million additional people affected.
The UN World Food Programme (WFP) reports that the current El Niño is shaping up to be the strongest in at least 70 years, potentially pushing the total number of people facing acute food insecurity to approximately 274 million. This phenomenon is expected to increase food insecurity by 83% in Central America and nearly 75% in Southern Africa, with Southern Africa, South America, and the Caribbean each facing more than 12 million additional people at risk of acute hunger. Additionally, the WFP warned that funding cuts from the United States and Europe have reduced household surveys from 1.1 million in 2024 to around 800,000 this year, hampering efforts to track emerging crises.
The UN World Food Programme warns that the current El Niño could be the strongest in at least 70 years, potentially pushing the total number of people facing acute food insecurity to approximately 274 million. This phenomenon is expected to increase food insecurity by 83% in Central America and nearly 75% in Southern Africa, while also adding over 12 million people to acute hunger in South America and the Caribbean. Furthermore, funding cuts from the United States and Europe have reduced household survey efforts from 1.1 million in 2024 to around 800,000 this year, hampering the ability to track emerging crises.
The UN World Food Programme (WFP) reports that the current El Niño is shaping up to be the strongest in at least 70 years, potentially pushing 49 million more people into acute hunger and raising the total number of food-insecure individuals to approximately 274 million by next year. Regional impacts include a projected 83% increase in food insecurity for Central America and 75% for Southern Africa, with South America and the Caribbean also facing over 12 million additional people in need. While the WFP is budgeting $80 million for early warning systems, funding cuts from the US and Europe have reduced household surveys from 1.1 million in 2024 to 800,000 this year, hindering the tracking of
The UN World Food Programme (WFP) reports that the current El Niño is shaping up to be the strongest in at least 70 years, potentially pushing nearly 49 million more people into acute hunger by the end of next year and raising the total number facing food insecurity to approximately 274 million. Central America and Southern Africa are projected to see food insecurity increases of 83% and nearly 75% respectively, with Southern Africa facing its most significant impact during the 2027-2028 lean season. Furthermore, WFP's ability to track these crises is being hampered by funding cuts from the United States and Europe, which have reduced household surveys from 1.1 million in 2024 to around 800,
The UN World Food Programme warns that the current El Niño could be the strongest in at least 70 years, potentially pushing 49 million more people into acute hunger and raising the total number of those facing food insecurity to approximately 274 million. Regional projections indicate food insecurity could rise by 83% in Central America and 75% in Southern Africa, with significant impacts expected throughout 2027. Additionally, funding cuts from the United States and Europe have reduced household survey efforts from 1.1 million in 2024 to around 800,000 this year, hindering the ability to track emerging crises.
The UN World Food Programme warns that the current El Niño, which may be the strongest in at least 70 years, could push nearly 49 million more people into acute hunger, bringing the total number facing food insecurity to approximately 274 million by the end of next year. Regional projections indicate food insecurity could rise by 83% in Central America and 75% in Southern Africa, with additional impacts expected in Asia and the Pacific, West Africa, and the Caribbean. Despite these threats, the WFP has already expanded anticipatory aid to 18 countries, reaching over 1.3 million people, and is budgeting at least $80 million for early warning and relief efforts.
The UN World Food Programme reports that the current El Niño is shaping up to be the strongest in at least 70 years, potentially driving the total number of people facing acute food insecurity to approximately 274 million. This phenomenon is expected to peak between September and December 2026, with projections indicating that food insecurity could rise by 83% in Central America and nearly 75% in Southern Africa. Additionally, an extra 8.2 million people in Asia and the Pacific, along with 6 million more in West and Central Africa, are projected to face acute hunger due to these extreme weather shifts.
The UN World Food Programme (WFP) warns that the current El Niño, which is shaping up to be the strongest in at least 70 years, could push nearly 50 million more people into acute hunger by the end of next year, potentially bringing the total number of people facing acute food insecurity to approximately 274 million. Regional projections suggest food insecurity could rise by 83% in Central America and nearly 75% in Southern Africa, with South America and the Caribbean also facing over 12 million additional people in need. While El Niño is expected to peak between September and December 2026, its impacts are projected to persist through 2027 by disrupting future harvests.
The UN World Food Programme now estimates that nearly 50 million more people could be pushed into acute hunger by the end of next year due to El Niño, raising the total number facing acute food insecurity to approximately 274 million — up from the previously reported baseline of 225 million — while funding cuts have reduced household surveys from 1.1 million in 2024 to 800,000 this year, hampering crisis tracking despite expanded anticipatory aid reaching over 1.3 million people in 18 countries.
