A combination of geopolitical conflict in the Middle East and the emergence of a powerful El Niño weather pattern is creating a complex situation for global food security. The conflict has also caused temporary supply bottlenecks for essential soil nutrients.
The conflict in the Middle East could drive additional millions of people into hunger by 2030. Currently, 266 million people are affected by acute hunger, with more than half of them residing in areas of armed conflict. The Democratic Republic of the Congo, Sudan, and Yemen are among the countries most severely affected by hunger due to conflict.
Researchers Jean-Michel Valantin, PhD and Fabrice Lollia describe the combination of the Middle East war and El Niño as a 'hyper-siege scenario'.
El Niño climate risks
The US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) stated there is a 63 percent probability that El Niño will be 'very strong' this year. NOAA also stated there is an approximately 80 percent chance that El Niño will be among the most intense ever measured. The climate think tank Berkeley Earth predicts this year's El Niño will be the strongest since records began. Temperatures in the Pacific are expected to rise by 3.6 degrees Celsius during the current El Niño.
The World Bank warned rice production in affected regions could decrease by this amount due to El Niño.
The UN Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) identifies the greatest risks from El Niño in the African Sahel, southern Africa, Southeast Asia, and the Central American 'Dry Corridor'. The FAO warned this month that there is a probability of more than 50 percent for drought periods in some of these regions in the coming months.
In India, which produces almost one third of the world's rice supply, rainfall in June was approximately 40 percent lower than usual. Maximo Torero, Chief Economist of the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO), stated, 'We are very concerned about El Niño and the delay of the monsoon... in India'.
Economic and industrial impacts
The economic implications of these shifts are significant. Goldman Sachs calculated that there could be a rise of nearly 16 percent in global food commodity prices next year.
JP Morgan warned that in connection with oil prices of 100 US dollars, food inflation could rise by 1.5 percentage points. JP Morgan also predicts that if oil prices exceed $120 per barrel, Ukrainian grain exports are blocked, and El Niño impacts harvests, food inflation could exceed 5 percent in 2027.
Beyond food, the climate phenomena impact industrial sectors. Valentin Vigier, ESG research lead at La Financière de l’Echiquier, noted that heatwaves strain power grids and that renewable energy production could decrease due to lower solar photovoltaic efficiency and droughts affecting hydropower. He also stated that previous El Niño episodes saw copper production decreases due to flooding in Chile and aluminum decreases due to drought in China.
Logistics have also been affected by climate patterns, such as in February 2023 when a major drought in the Panama Canal reduced daily boat transits from 38 to 22. In November 2023, a Japanese petrochemical company paid nearly 4 million dollars to secure a transit through the Panama Canal.
Agricultural productivity and hunger
Despite these risks, current data shows a mixed landscape. The world achieved the largest grain harvest in history last year. This year's grain harvest is expected to be slightly lower than last year but remains the second largest in history. Simone Bunse, senior researcher at the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), noted that improvements in agricultural productivity in India and Latin America have helped maintain food production and reduce malnutrition. Bunse also stated, 'We are observing improvements in agricultural productivity'.
However, FAO Chief Economist Maximo Torero warned of a 'cumulative effect' that could lead to a 'very complex situation' by the end of the year. He stated, 'Enough calories are produced worldwide to feed all people'.
The disruption of resources continues to be a factor in instability. Simone Bunse of SIPRI said conflict parties deliberately destroy farmland, livestock, water systems, food stores, and transport routes. Additionally, Jean-Michel Valantin warned that the upcoming crisis is particularly dangerous for the Democratic Republic of the Congo or the Indian Ocean face of Africa, as it exacerbates political tensions.
