Gold steadied as traders weighed prospects for a deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz while awaiting US inflation data that could provide fresh clues to the Federal Reserve’s interest-rate path. The precious metal advanced through $4,400 an ounce ahead of the key US inflation report, reflecting heightened geopolitical uncertainty and expectations surrounding Fed monetary policy.
The US Dollar remained stuck in a narrow range as traders balanced US-Iran uncertainty, elevated oil prices, and fading expectations for a September Fed rate hike. In the Middle East, Qatar announced that talks involving Oman and Iran regarding the Strait of Hormuz have reached an advanced stage. However, a US military intervention on another ship in the strait raised questions about a deal that would encompass lasting peace. Despite US President Donald Trump's statements that a deal is imminent, there was no sign that the war was ending.
Geopolitical tensions were also fueled by mutual attacks on maritime trade routes between the US and Yemen's Houthis, as well as a North Korean missile test, which raised concerns in Asian markets and pushed oil and gold prices higher. Brent crude traded just below $89 a barrel. These factors, combined with diplomatic efforts involving the US, Iran, and other countries in the Middle East, continued to influence the direction of gold.
Gold reached this level as investors awaited the US inflation report, reflecting heightened geopolitical tensions and Fed policy expectations.
Gold was trading around 4,400 USD/oz, with the latest market data showing approximately 4,401–4,407 USD/oz. During the session, gold traded between approximately 4,363 and 4,415 USD/oz. The daily structure still points toward a possible test of the 200-day SMA near 4,500, with RSI supporting the bullish recovery. However, all short-term timeframes are in overbought territory, and substantial profit-taking positions have built up at highs, opening the door to rapid pullbacks at any time.
Technical Outlook: Key Levels to Watch
Gold remains bullish above 4,360–4,375, but buyers need to break 4,425–4,435 to unlock the next upside leg. The 4,400 level is now the psychological decision area; staying above it keeps bullish pressure active, but the real breakout zone is 4,425–4,435. If buyers break through with strength, gold may continue toward the next resistance at 4,450–4,470, and above that, the bigger market focus shifts toward 4,500. On the downside, the nearest support is 4,360–4,375, which is the Immediate Buy Reaction zone. Below that, 4,315–4,335 is the Main Reload Zone; losing 4,360 would not fully break the trend but would increase the chance of a deeper pullback into this reload area.
On the H1 timeframe, gold is maintaining its position above the EMA 09, indicating the short-term trend remains bullish. Bullish momentum remains intact following the strong recovery from 4,365–4,375. If an H1 candle closes firmly above 4,415, bullish momentum could strengthen and open the way toward 4,435–4,450. If 4,385 is broken, gold could retest 4,365–4,375. Gold could continue rising in the short term if it holds above 4,385–4,390 and successfully breaks through 4,415–4,420, with the next target at 4,435–4,450 USD/oz.
Gold is moving inside a clean upward trend after a strong bullish expansion from the lower base. The chart shows higher highs, higher lows, BOS signals, and price still respecting the upper trendline structure.
US Inflation Data as Key Catalyst
Analysts noted that today's domestic data agenda would be quiet, while abroad, besides US inflation, weekly mortgage applications and budget balance would be monitored. In the US, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 0.1% on a monthly basis in July, and the annual inflation rate decreased from 3.5% in June to 3.4% in July. Core inflation increased by 0.2% monthly and 2.5% annually. The announced figures were in line with market expectations. However, US inflation remains above the Federal Reserve's 2% target.
Markets are pricing a 50% probability of a 25 basis point interest rate hike by the Fed in September. Weak employment statistics from the US last week led markets to price a lower likelihood of continued tight monetary policy, bringing the probability of a September rate hike down to around 50%. If inflation comes in below expectations, the pressure for a rate hike would decrease, and gold's uptrend could accelerate. Conversely, if inflation exceeds forecasts, expectations of monetary tightening could resurface, creating selling pressure on gold.
Before the US inflation data announcement, the ounce gold price was at 4,406.94 USD. Following the announcement, the ounce gold price rose to 4,428.79 USD at 15:45 TSİ, gaining approximately 21.85 USD in a short period, an increase approaching 0.5%. In the Borsa Istanbul Precious Metals and Precious Stones Market (KMKTP), the price of a kilogram of standard gold rose to 6,770,000 TRY, reaching a high of 6,778,600 TRY during the day, and fell to 6,682,000 TRY. The kilogram gold price closed the previous day at 6,723,000 TRY, increasing by 0.7% on a daily basis. The total transaction volume in the gold market exceeded 6.9 billion TRY, with a total transaction amount exceeding 1,023 kilograms. The total transaction volume for all metals was 7.06 billion TRY.
