Economy

Goldman Sachs: Brent Could Top $120 If Hormuz Disruptions Persist

The investment bank warns that prolonged trade interruptions in the strait could drive Brent crude toward the $120 mark by Q4, while forecasting an average price of $100 per barrel for next year.

Talivio News · Global 21 July 2026, 09:24 1 min read

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Large tanker ships navigating the open sea under a clear sky.

Goldman Sachs has forecast that Brent crude oil prices could exceed $120 per barrel if disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz persist, according to a report by the bank.

The bank's analysis, led by Daan Struyven, indicates that under persistent disruptions, Brent could reach the $120 threshold by the fourth quarter. However, this scenario is not Goldman Sachs' base case.

Goldman Sachs also expects oil prices to average $100 a barrel next year if traffic through the Strait of Hormuz is affected.

$120 per barrel

Potential Brent price under persistent Hormuz disruptions

The forecast of Brent exceeding $120 is not Goldman Sachs' base case.

— Goldman Sachs

Updates

Update — 21 July, 21:11

The conflict in the Middle East has escalated, with former President Donald Trump vowing to launch an attack on an Iranian nuclear facility. This development adds a significant layer of geopolitical risk to the Strait of Hormuz situation previously analyzed by Goldman Sachs.

Update — 23 July, 13:55

Brent crude has now surpassed the $100 per barrel threshold following an escalation in the Middle East conflict. Additionally, former President Trump has publicly vowed to target an Iranian nuclear facility if elected.

Ilse Marchetti

Economics Correspondent · Talivio News

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