GBPUSD has transitioned from a bullish market structure into a bearish one, with sellers regaining control of the higher-timeframe order flow, according to market analysts. The pair remains below the Ichimoku cloud, exhibiting a bearish structure characterized by lower highs. Buyers have failed to break the bearish structure.
Recent rejection level, marking a macro ceiling for GBPUSD.
Current price of GBPUSD.
GBPUSD was rejected from a recent high around 1.3550, identified as a macro ceiling, and has since declined. The 200-period EMA at 1.33731 has flipped from support to resistance, and the 72-period SMA ribbon sits between 1.34046 and 1.34140, further reinforcing the bearish outlook.
The pair is testing the 1.3350–1.3380 area, where the downtrend line and a Fair Value Gap converge. A sell setup is preferred around the 1.3350–1.3360 resistance zone, with entry zone at 1.33600. Levels vary slightly, with some analysts noting the 1.3365–1.3420 zone as the point of interest and a preferred execution band of 1.3380–1.3400.
If sellers defend the 1.3400 resistance level, GBPUSD could retreat to the 1.3300 support zone, with downside targets at 1.3285, 1.3307, 1.3305, and ultimately the 1.3200 support area, specifically the 1.32000–1.32200 primary target zone. Take profit targets are set at 1.33300, 1.33000, 1.3290, 1.3190, and 1.3100.
The bearish scenario could be invalidated if price breaks and closes above 1.3400 on the H4 timeframe and holds upon retest, or if it decisively breaks above 1.3380 and sustains above the downtrend line.
Fundamental Drivers Ahead
According to market analysts, the US dollar is supported ahead of key US economic data and the Federal Reserve meeting this week. Market analysts also point to the FOMC decision, US GDP, and PCE data as key events for GBPUSD. The Bank of England is expected to maintain a more cautious policy stance at its meeting on 30 July. The DXY must remain above 101.15 or confirm above 101.55 for the GBPUSD short setup to activate.