The Central Bank of the Russian Federation has revised its economic outlook for 2026, lowering the GDP growth forecast to a range of 0.0-1.0%.
The regulator's shift follows a significant upward revision in inflation targets. While the bank previously anticipated inflation to slow to 4.5–5.5%, it now expects rates of 6–7% in 2026.
This shift is linked to substantial increases in fuel prices. The Central Bank noted that the persistence of high inflation expectations among households, businesses, and financial markets could hinder efforts to slow price growth.
Fuel price growth has accelerated since mid-May. Several regions faced shortages following strikes on oil refineries.
The Central Bank anticipates that fuel production capacity will gradually be restored by the end of the year. However, some analysts warn that inflation could climb even higher by year-end due to strikes on logistics centers.
The regulator highlighted that the current spike in inflation is driven by a "significant increase in fuel prices that has already occurred."