SpaceX Stock Plunges 45% from Peak as Short Sellers Circle
The space company's shares have tumbled below their IPO price amid rising short interest and broader tech sell-offs.
Talivio News · Global2 min read
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SpaceX (NASDAQ: SPCX) has fallen roughly 45% from its post-IPO peak, just weeks after its record-setting debut. Shares have traded below their $135 IPO price since mid-July.
Short sellers have amassed roughly $25 billion in notional bearish bets, up from about 40 million shares a month ago, according to data from S3 Partners. The sharp increase reflects growing bearish sentiment as the company faces multiple headwinds: Starship test attempts, lockup expirations approaching, and broader market pressure on high-growth tech names.
Elon Musk's net worth has dropped by roughly $650 billion over five weeks, as both SpaceX and Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) declined. However, many analysts remain bullish. The average analyst price target for SpaceX is about $237, implying more than 100% upside from current levels, with Raymond James' Brian Gesuale setting the Street-high target of $800 per share, valuing the company at roughly $10 trillion.
SpaceX's first quarterly earnings report is expected on August 4, followed by the first lockup expiration on August 6, which will release about 911.5 million shares unconditionally. The lockup schedule is staggered, with additional tranches releasing in the following weeks, eventually increasing the freely tradable float from roughly 639 million shares to over 5 billion by year-end.
Despite the sell-off, some prominent investors have added to their positions. Cathie Wood's ARK Invest bought $51 million of SpaceX stock, and Tesla disclosed a roughly $2 billion equity investment in the company. SpaceX controls about 70% of satellites in orbit and is expanding into AI data center services, with deals from Anthropic and Alphabet potentially generating $26 billion annually.
Gary Black, a prominent investor, described the sell-off as investors breaking the 'number one rule in investing.' The stock has fallen for seven consecutive sessions and is down more than 35% over the past month, underperforming the broader market as the S&P 500 posted mid-single-digit gains over the same period.
Morgan Stanley, one of the IPO underwriters, reiterated its $300 price target, calling the current valuation an attractive entry point. However, Morningstar analyst Nicolas Owens issued a sell rating with a $63 price target. SpaceX reported a net loss of $5 billion in Q1 2026 despite 15% revenue growth.
Updates
SpaceX is reportedly exploring a potential merger with Tesla, a move that could involve the disposal of Tesla's China business. The proposed deal has raised concerns regarding potential scrutiny from Beijing and risks involving Chinese government access to data from 2 million Tesla owners.
SpaceX is reportedly exploring a potential merger with Tesla, a move that could provoke scrutiny from Beijing due to concerns over a major US defense contractor controlling Tesla's Chinese factories and supply chains. Additionally, the Wall Street Journal suggests such a deal might raise fears regarding the Chinese government's access to data from 2 million Tesla owners. Amid these developments, SpaceX recently secured a $1.6 billion contract with the US Space Force for 18 Falcon 9 missions through the end of next year.
Bloomberg consensus expects SpaceX to report Q2 revenue of $6.87 billion, up from $4.7 billion in Q1, alongside an adjusted EBITDA of $2.03 billion. Analysts also project significant long-term expansion, with capex potentially rising from $48.7 billion this year to $118.4 billion by FY 2028 and total debt expected to grow fivefold to over $218 billion in the same period. Additionally, the company recently secured a $1.6 billion contract with the US Space Force for 18 Falcon 9 missions through the end of next year.
Bloomberg consensus expects SpaceX to report Q2 revenue of $6.87 billion, up from $4.7 billion in Q1, alongside an adjusted EBITDA of $2.03 billion. Additionally, S&P Global Visible Alpha analyst Melissa Otto projects company capex to rise from $48.7 billion this year to $118.4 billion by FY 2028, while total debt could grow over fivefold to more than $218.0 billion in the same period. Meanwhile, reports suggest SpaceX is exploring a potential merger with Tesla, a move that could trigger scrutiny from Beijing over data security and control of supply chains.
SpaceX is reportedly exploring a potential merger with Tesla, a move that could involve the disposal of Tesla's China business. Analysts warn this merger could trigger scrutiny from Beijing due to concerns that a major US defense contractor would control Tesla's Chinese supply chains and potentially allow access to data from 2 million owners.
SpaceX shares have seen their decline deepen, with the stock currently trading 47% below its June 16 closing high and losing over $1.2 trillion in market value since its June peak. The volatility is compounded by news that second-quarter capital spending rose to approximately $18.4 billion, leading to an 8.8% drop in post-market trading. Additionally, insiders and employees are set to be released from their first stock lockup this Thursday, a move that could introduce hundreds of millions of new shares into the market.
SpaceX shares have seen their decline deepen, with the stock trading 47% below its June 16 closing high and falling to $110.89 in overnight trading. The company's market value has lost more than $1.2 trillion since its peak in June, while short sellers have reportedly notched a $15.5 billion profit as prices slid. Additionally, employees and insiders will be released from their first stock lockup on Thursday, a move that could free hundreds of millions of shares.
SpaceX shares have dropped 47% from their June 16 closing high, with more than $1.2 trillion erased from the company's market value since its peak in June. Amidst this volatility, the stock fell to $110.89 in overnight trading following a 1.36% decline to Monday's close of $113.50. Additionally, the company's second-quarter capital spending has risen to approximately $18.4 billion, triggering an 8.8% drop in US post-market trading.
SpaceX shares have seen further volatility, trading 47% below its June 16 closing high as the company reported second-quarter capital spending rose to approximately $18.4 billion. Additionally, more than $1.2 trillion has been erased from the company's market value since its peak in June, while short sellers are reported to have notched a $15.5 billion profit during the slide.
SpaceX shares have seen further volatility, trading 47% below their June 16 closing high and dropping to $110.89 in overnight trading. The company also reported that second-quarter capital spending rose to approximately $18.4 billion, causing shares to fall as much as 8.8% in US post-market trading. Additionally, insiders and employees are set to be released from their first stock lockup this Thursday, an event that could free hundreds of millions of shares.
SpaceX shares have seen their decline deepen, with the stock trading 47% below its June 16 closing high and erasing more than $1.2 trillion in market value since its June peak. Additionally, the company's second-quarter capital spending has risen to approximately $18.4 billion, triggering an 8.8% drop in US post-market trading.
SpaceX shares have seen their decline accelerate, with the stock trading 47% below its June 16 closing high and losing over $1.2 trillion in market value since its June peak. Following reports that second-quarter capital spending rose to approximately $18.4 billion, shares fell as much as 8.8% in US post-market trading. Additionally, market participants are bracing for the August 6 lock-up expiration, which is expected to release hundreds of millions of insider shares, roughly triple the current tradable float.
SpaceX shares rose from a 45% drop to 47% below their June 16 closing high, while total market value erased since the June peak has exceeded $1.2 trillion. Following reports of second-quarter capital spending rising to approximately $18.4 billion, the stock fell as much as 8.8% in US post-market trading. Additionally, insiders and employees are set to be released from their first stock lockup this Thursday, an event some analysts suggest could free hundreds of millions of shares.
SpaceX's short interest has surged from 23.3 million shares on June 16 to 219.3 million as of July 29, with bearish positions now valued at approximately $24.6 billion. Amidst this volatility, the company faces an upcoming insider lock-up expiration on August 6, which could release significantly more shares than the current tradable float. Additionally, SpaceX recently secured a $1.6 billion contract with the U.S. Space Force for 18 Falcon 9 missions through the end of next year.
SpaceX's short interest has surged from 23.3 million shares on June 16 to 219.3 million as of July 29, with total bearish positions now valued at approximately $24.6 billion. Additionally, the company is reportedly exploring a potential merger with Tesla, a move that could face scrutiny from Beijing over defense contracts and concerns regarding data privacy for Tesla owners. Meanwhile, the upcoming August 6 lock-up expiration is expected to release a significant amount of insider shares, with some estimates suggesting up to 91.5 million newly tradable shares will enter the market.
SpaceX's short interest has surged to 219.3 million shares as of July 29, up from 23.3 million on June 16, with the bearish position now valued at approximately $24.6 billion. Additionally, investors are preparing for the August 6 lock-up expiration, which could release hundreds of millions of insider shares—roughly triple the current tradable float—into the market.
SpaceX's second-quarter earnings are scheduled for release on August 4, amid reports that an insider lock-up expiration on August 6 could introduce up to 91.5 million newly tradable shares into the public float. Additionally, analysts project Q2 revenue to reach between $6.82 billion and $6.87 billion, with a potential non-GAAP loss per share of approximately $0.25 to $0.29. The company is also reportedly exploring a potential merger with Tesla, a move that could trigger regulatory scrutiny in China regarding defense contracts and data security.
SpaceX is reportedly exploring a potential merger with Tesla, a move that could involve the disposal of Tesla's Chinese business and may trigger scrutiny from Beijing due to concerns over defense contracts and data access for 2 million vehicle owners. Additionally, the company is scheduled to report its Q2 earnings on August 4, with analysts projecting Q2 revenue around $6.82 billion and a non-GAAP loss of $0.29 per share. Investors are also closely monitoring the August 6 lock-up expiration, which is expected to release a significant amount of newly tradable insider shares into the public float.
SpaceX shares reached $111.80 following a report that second-quarter revenue hit $7.8 billion, a 92% increase from the previous year that exceeded Wall Street estimates. Despite the revenue beat and adjusted EBITDA nearly tripling to $3.5 billion, the company's net loss narrowed to $541 million as quarterly capital expenditures rose to $18.4 billion. Investors remain cautious ahead of the August 6 lock-up expiration, which could see up to 911.5 million shares become eligible for sale, potentially increasing the public float by 143%.
SpaceX shares have fallen significantly, with the stock trading 47% below its June 16 closing high and erasing more than $1.2 trillion in market value since its peak. While the company reported revenue of $7.8 billion, beating Wall Street estimates, and an adjusted EBITDA of $3.5 billion, investors remain focused on heavy capital expenditures and the upcoming August 6 insider lock-up expiration, which could release up to 911.5 million shares into the public float.
SpaceX reported a 92% year-over-year revenue increase to $7.8 billion, beating Wall Street estimates, while its adjusted EBITDA nearly tripled to $3.5 billion. Despite narrowing its net loss to $541 million, the company spent $18.4 billion during the quarter to expand Starlink, Starship, and AI infrastructure. Additionally, JPMorgan raised its price target to $240 from $225, projecting capital expenditures could reach nearly $200 billion in both 2027 and 2028.
SpaceX's second-quarter revenue rose 92% year-over-year to $7.8 billion, beating Wall Street estimates and contributing to an adjusted EBITDA that nearly tripled to $3.5 billion. Despite the revenue beat, the company reported an $18.4 billion quarterly capital expenditure to expand Starlink, Starship, and AI infrastructure, while narrowing its net loss to $541 million. Investors are now closely monitoring the upcoming August 6 lock-up expiration, which could potentially release up to 911.5 million shares into the public float.
SpaceX's second-quarter revenue rose 92% year-over-year to $7.8 billion, beating estimates, while adjusted EBITDA nearly tripled to $3.5 billion. Despite narrowing its net loss to $541 million, the company's quarterly capital spending climbed to $18.4 billion to support Starlink, Starship, and AI infrastructure. Additionally, CEO Elon Musk indicated that SpaceX will attempt a tower catch of the ship during its next flight, pending mission data review.
SpaceX's Q2 revenue rose 92% year-over-year to $7.8 billion, beating estimates, while adjusted EBITDA nearly tripled to $3.5 billion. Despite narrowing its net loss to $541 million, the company's quarterly capital spending reached $18.4 billion to support Starlink, Starship, and AI infrastructure. Additionally, CEO Elon Musk indicated that SpaceX will attempt a tower catch of the Starship during its next flight, pending mission data review.
SpaceX reported a 92% year-over-year revenue increase to $7.8 billion, surpassing Wall Street estimates, while its adjusted EBITDA nearly tripled to $3.5 billion. Despite narrowing its net loss to $541 million, the company's quarterly capital spending reached $18.4 billion to support Starlink, Starship, and AI infrastructure. Additionally, CEO Elon Musk announced that SpaceX will attempt a tower catch of the spacecraft on its next flight, pending mission data review.
SpaceX's second-quarter revenue rose 92% year-over-year to $7.8 billion, beating Wall Street estimates, while its adjusted EBITDA nearly tripled to $3.5 billion. Despite narrowing its net loss to $541 million—an improvement from the $1 billion loss in the same period last year—the company spent $18.4 billion during the quarter on Starlink, Starship, and AI infrastructure. Additionally, the company's xAI division reported $2.56 billion in revenue, marking a 257% year-over-year growth.
SpaceX's quarterly report revealed a revenue increase of 92% year-over-year to $7.8 billion, while its net loss narrowed to $541 million in Q2 2026 compared to a $1 billion loss in the same period last year. Despite these results, shares fell as much as 12.9% due to investor concerns over heavy capital spending, which reached approximately $18.4 billion for the quarter. Additionally, the company reported that its AI business generated $2.6 billion in Q2 revenue, more than tripling from the previous year.
SpaceX's second-quarter revenue rose 92% year-over-year to $7.8 billion, beating Wall Street estimates, while the company narrowed its quarterly net loss to $541 million compared to a $1 billion loss in the same period last year. Despite the stronger-than-expected earnings, shares fell as investors reacted to heavy capital expenditures of $18.4 billion aimed at expanding Starlink, Starship, and AI infrastructure. Additionally, a major insider lock-up expiration on August 6 is expected to release up to 911.5 million shares into the public float.
SpaceX's Q2 2026 revenue rose 92% year-over-year to $7.8 billion, beating Wall Street estimates, while the company narrowed its net loss to $541 million compared to a $1 billion loss in the same period last year. Despite the stronger-than-expected performance, shares fell as investors expressed concern over the $18.4 billion spent on capital expenditures to expand Starlink, Starship, and AI infrastructure. Additionally, the upcoming August 6 lock-up expiration is expected to release up to 911.5 million shares into the public float.
SpaceX's recent quarterly report revealed revenue rose 92% year-over-year to $7.8 billion, beating estimates, while the company narrowed its net loss to $541 million for Q2 2026 compared to a $1 billion loss in the same period last year. Despite the improved performance, shares fell as investors reacted to $18.4 billion in quarterly capital expenditures and concerns over the upcoming August 6 insider lock-up expiration, which could release up to 911.5 million shares into the market.
SpaceX's second-quarter revenue rose 92% year-over-year to $7.8 billion, beating Wall Street estimates, while the company narrowed its net loss to $541 million compared to a $1 billion loss in the same period last year. Despite the improved performance, shares fell as investors remain concerned over heavy capital spending, which reached $18.4 billion for the quarter to fund AI infrastructure, Starlink, and Starship. Additionally, a major insider lock-up expiration on August 6 is expected to release up to 911.5 million shares, potentially increasing the public float by 143%.
SpaceX's second-quarter revenue rose 92% year-over-year to $7.8 billion, surpassing Wall Street estimates, while its net loss narrowed to $541 million compared to a $1 billion loss in the same period last year. Despite this, shares fell as much as 12.9% following the report due to investor concerns regarding the heavy $18.4 billion in quarterly capital expenditures required for AI and Starlink expansion. Additionally, the company noted that its AI business generated $2.6 billion in Q2 revenue, reflecting a more than three-fold increase from the previous year.
SpaceX reported a second-quarter revenue of $7.8 billion, exceeding Wall Street estimates, while its net loss narrowed to $541 million compared to a $1 billion loss in the same period last year. Despite this improvement, shares fell as investors reacted to $18.4 billion in quarterly capital expenditures and concerns regarding the August 6 lock-up expiration, which could release up to 911.5 million shares into the market.
SpaceX reported Q2 revenue of $7.8 billion — significantly above the $6.82 billion consensus — driven by a 257% year-over-year surge in xAI revenue to $2.56 billion and a 66% jump in Starlink revenue to $4.29 billion, while capital expenditures soared to $18.4 billion, narrowing its net loss to $541 million from $1 billion a year earlier, and executives signaled AI infrastructure is now generating enough revenue to potentially fund its own expansion, shifting the narrative from Starlink-dependent financing.
SpaceX reported Q2 revenue of $7.81 billion — significantly exceeding the $6.82 billion consensus — driven by a 66% surge in Starlink revenue to $4.29 billion and a 257% jump in xAI revenue to $2.56 billion, while capital expenditures climbed to $18.4 billion, with AI spending alone reaching $16 billion; the company also revealed it now expects to generate $26 billion in annual revenue from AI compute rentals and aims to reach a $100 billion annualized revenue run rate by year-end, even as its net loss narrowed to $541 million from $1 billion a year earlier.
SpaceX reported Q2 revenue of $7.81 billion — significantly exceeding the $6.82 billion consensus — driven by a 66% year-over-year surge in Starlink revenue to $4.29 billion and $2.56 billion in xAI revenue, while capital expenditures hit $18.4 billion, pushing the company’s net loss to $541 million from $1 billion a year earlier; short interest rose to 219.3 million shares ($24.6 billion) as 911.5 million insider shares became eligible for sale on August 6, with analysts now projecting 2027 revenue of $73.15 billion and a potential profit of $0.65 per share.
SpaceX reported Q2 revenue of $7.81 billion — significantly exceeding the $6.82 billion consensus — driven by a 66% YoY jump in Starlink revenue to $4.29 billion and a 257% surge in xAI revenue to $2.56 billion, while capital expenditures reached $18.4 billion, with AI spending alone nearing $16 billion; the company also confirmed that over 911.5 million insider shares unlocked on August 6, more than doubling its public float, and disclosed new $6.7 billion in cloud computing contracts since quarter-end, projecting a $100 billion annualized revenue run rate by year-end.
SpaceX reported Q2 revenue of $7.81 billion — far exceeding the $6.82 billion consensus — driven by a 66% year-over-year surge in Starlink revenue to $4.29 billion and a 257% jump in xAI revenue to $2.56 billion, while capital expenditures spiked to $18.4 billion, pushing the net loss to $541 million from $1 billion a year earlier; short interest rose to 219.3 million shares ($24.6 billion) as 911.5 million insider shares unlocked on August 6, with analysts now projecting 2027 revenue at $73.15 billion and AI spending to reach $118.4 billion by 2028.
SpaceX reported Q2 revenue of $7.81 billion — far exceeding the $6.82 billion consensus — driven by a 66% surge in Starlink revenue to $4.29 billion and a 257% jump in xAI revenue to $2.56 billion, while capital expenditures spiked to $18.4 billion, more than triple the prior quarter, and short interest rose to 219.3 million shares ($24.6 billion notional value) as insiders prepared to sell up to 911.5 million locked shares on August 6.
SpaceX reported Q2 revenue of $7.81 billion — significantly exceeding the $6.82 billion consensus — with AI-driven revenue hitting $2.6 billion, more than tripling year-over-year, while capital expenditures surged to $18.4 billion, prompting Wall Street to reassess the sustainability of its spending despite narrowing its net loss to $541 million from $1 billion a year earlier.
SpaceX reported Q2 revenue of $7.81 billion — significantly exceeding the $6.82 billion consensus — driven by a 66% surge in Starlink revenue to $4.29 billion and a 257% jump in xAI revenue to $2.56 billion, while capital expenditures rose to $18.4 billion, nearly triple the prior quarter, and short interest climbed to 219.3 million shares ($24.6 billion) as the August 6 lock-up expiration released up to 911.5 million shares, triggering further market pressure despite retail investors buying the dip.
SpaceX reported Q2 revenue of $7.81 billion — far exceeding the $6.82 billion consensus — driven by a 66% YoY surge in Starlink revenue to $4.29 billion and xAI’s $2.56 billion in revenue, up 257% year-over-year, while capital expenditures spiked to $18.4 billion, nearly triple the prior quarter, and short interest rose to 219.3 million shares worth $24.6 billion as of July 29, with 911.5 million insider shares set to unlock on August 6, more than doubling the public float.
SpaceX reported Q2 revenue of $7.81 billion — far exceeding the $6.82 billion consensus — driven by a 66% surge in Starlink revenue to $4.29 billion and a 257% jump in xAI revenue to $2.56 billion, while capital expenditures hit $18.4 billion, nearly triple the prior quarter, and short interest rose to 219.3 million shares, worth $24.6 billion, as 911.5 million locked shares became eligible for sale on August 6.
SpaceX reported Q2 revenue of $7.81 billion — far exceeding the $6.82 billion consensus — with AI-driven revenue hitting $2.6 billion, more than triple year-over-year, while capital expenditures surged to $18.4 billion, pushing the company’s net loss to $541 million from $1 billion a year earlier; short interest rose to 219.3 million shares ($24.6 billion value) as 911.5 million insider shares unlocked on August 6, nearly doubling the public float, though the stock held steady amid retail buying and optimism over AI’s potential to self-fund future growth.
SpaceX reported Q2 revenue of $7.81 billion — far exceeding the $6.82 billion consensus — driven by a 66% surge in Starlink revenue to $4.29 billion and a 257% jump in xAI revenue to $2.56 billion, while capital expenditures soared to $18.4 billion, pushing the company’s net loss to $541 million from $1 billion a year earlier, and confirming its AI unit is now generating enough revenue to potentially fund its own expansion rather than relying solely on Starlink’s cash flow.
SpaceX reported Q2 revenue of $7.81 billion — far exceeding the $6.82 billion consensus — driven by a 66% YoY jump in Starlink revenue to $4.29 billion and a 257% surge in xAI revenue to $2.56 billion, while capital expenditures hit $18.4 billion, nearly triple the prior quarter, and the company narrowed its net loss to $541 million from $1 billion a year earlier.
SpaceX reported Q2 revenue of $7.81 billion — significantly exceeding the $6.82 billion consensus — driven by a 66% year-over-year surge in Starlink revenue to $4.29 billion and a 257% jump in xAI revenue to $2.56 billion, while capital expenditures rose to $18.4 billion, with AI spending alone nearing $16 billion; the company also confirmed that up to 911.5 million shares unlocked on August 6, more than doubling its public float, and executives signaled AI infrastructure may soon fund its own growth, reducing reliance on Starlink’s cash flow.
SpaceX reported Q2 revenue of $7.81 billion — significantly exceeding the $6.82 billion consensus — with AI-driven revenue hitting $2.6 billion, more than triple year-over-year, while capital expenditures surged to $18.4 billion, driving a narrowed net loss to $541 million; the company also confirmed that 911.5 million insider shares unlocked on August 6, more than doubling its public float, and projected $12 billion in revenue for the September quarter as it accelerates Starlink V3 deployments and AI infrastructure scaling.
SpaceX reported Q2 revenue of $7.81 billion — significantly exceeding the $6.82 billion consensus — driven by a 66% surge in Starlink revenue to $4.29 billion and a 257% jump in xAI revenue to $2.56 billion, while capital expenditures soared to $18.4 billion, pushing the company’s net loss to $541 million from $1 billion a year earlier, and revealing that AI infrastructure is now generating enough revenue to begin funding its own expansion, a shift from reliance on Starlink’s cash flows.
SpaceX reported Q2 revenue of $7.81 billion — significantly exceeding the $6.82 billion consensus — driven by a 66% year-over-year surge in Starlink revenue to $4.29 billion and $2.56 billion in xAI revenue, up 257% from the prior year, while capital expenditures hit $18.4 billion, more than triple the prior quarter, and short interest rose to 219.3 million shares ($24.6 billion) as 911.5 million insider shares unlocked on August 6, triggering further market pressure despite retail investors buying the dip.
