SpaceX (NASDAQ: SPCX) has fallen roughly 45% from its post-IPO peak, just weeks after its record-setting debut. Shares have traded below their $135 IPO price since mid-July.
Short sellers have amassed roughly $25 billion in notional bearish bets, up from about 40 million shares a month ago, according to data from S3 Partners. The sharp increase reflects growing bearish sentiment as the company faces multiple headwinds: Starship test attempts, lockup expirations approaching, and broader market pressure on high-growth tech names.
Elon Musk's net worth has dropped by roughly $650 billion over five weeks, as both SpaceX and Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) declined. However, many analysts remain bullish. The average analyst price target for SpaceX is about $237, implying more than 100% upside from current levels, with Raymond James' Brian Gesuale setting the Street-high target of $800 per share, valuing the company at roughly $10 trillion.
SpaceX's first quarterly earnings report is expected on August 4, followed by the first lockup expiration on August 6, which will release about 911.5 million shares unconditionally. The lockup schedule is staggered, with additional tranches releasing in the following weeks, eventually increasing the freely tradable float from roughly 639 million shares to over 5 billion by year-end.
Despite the sell-off, some prominent investors have added to their positions. Cathie Wood's ARK Invest bought $51 million of SpaceX stock, and Tesla disclosed a roughly $2 billion equity investment in the company. SpaceX controls about 70% of satellites in orbit and is expanding into AI data center services, with deals from Anthropic and Alphabet potentially generating $26 billion annually.
Gary Black, a prominent investor, described the sell-off as investors breaking the 'number one rule in investing.' The stock has fallen for seven consecutive sessions and is down more than 35% over the past month, underperforming the broader market as the S&P 500 posted mid-single-digit gains over the same period.
Morgan Stanley, one of the IPO underwriters, reiterated its $300 price target, calling the current valuation an attractive entry point. However, Morningstar analyst Nicolas Owens issued a sell rating with a $63 price target. SpaceX reported a net loss of $5 billion in Q1 2026 despite 15% revenue growth.