The US Federal Reserve held its policy rate steady at 3.50%-3.75% at its latest meeting, but the decision was not unanimous. Three officials voted for a 25-basis-point rate hike, according to the Fed statement.
Fed Chair Kevin Warsh reiterated the central bank's commitment to the 2% inflation target and said he sees no softening of that goal. He noted that both nominal and real interest rates have risen across the entire Treasury yield curve since the last meeting, but avoided giving forward guidance on future policy.
The 30-year yield reached 5.2369%, its highest level since July 2007, when it hit 5.2387%. The 10-year yield also rose, gaining 8 basis points to 4.69% and later trading at 4.70%.
The yield spread between 2-year and 30-year Treasuries widened as long-term yields outpaced short-term yields. Analysts interpret the rise in long-term bond yields as a sign investors worry the Fed may not be aggressive enough in controlling inflation.
Waterer said the rise in the 30-year yield reflects market expectations that inflation will remain elevated longer than the Fed currently projects. He partly attributed the rise to climbing oil prices since the start of the US-Iran conflict, which add to inflationary pressures. Waterer added that the Fed is taking a phased approach to rate hikes, but the bond market is pricing in the eventual need for more aggressive tightening due to sustained oil price rises.
The rise in US long-term bond yields is increasing global borrowing costs, supporting the US dollar, and putting pressure on growth stocks and emerging market assets. Analysts warn that if the 30-year yield continues to rise, it could become a negative factor for global stock markets and increase foreign exchange volatility.
Updates
Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh signaled that rate hikes are no longer the exclusive tool for curbing inflation, suggesting the central bank may rely on markets to tighten conditions. Additionally, Warsh noted that the Fed may consider revising its PCE-based inflation target following data reviews. Meanwhile, market expectations for a September rate hike have risen to 56% on Polymarket, as Bank of America economists warn that the Fed must act beyond verbal commitments to maintain its policy credibility.
Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh indicated that the central bank is considering a potential revision to its PCE inflation target and hinted that market tightening may reduce the need for further rate hikes. Meanwhile, Bank of America economists project three consecutive 25-basis-point rate increases this year, noting that current market volatility reflects concerns over the Fed's inflation credibility. Concurrently, Polymarket bettors have increased the probability of a September rate hike to 56%.
Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh signaled that rate hikes are no longer the sole tool for curbing inflation, suggesting the central bank may rely on market tightening and a potential shift in its inflation target. Following these remarks, Bank of America economists warned of a credibility risk, while market sentiment shifted as Polymarket bettors increased the probability of a September rate hike to 56%. Meanwhile, official data indicates that the Federal Reserve has maintained interest rates at current levels for the seventh consecutive month.
Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh signaled that the central bank may consider revising its PCE-based inflation target and noted that markets are currently tightening conditions on the Fed's behalf. In response to these developments, Bank of America economists warned of a potential credibility shock, projecting 25 basis point hikes at each of the remaining three meetings this year, while Polymarket odds for a September rate increase have risen to 56%. Additionally, the 10-year Treasury yield climbed to 4.66% on Thursday, with reports indicating a slight cooling in 30-year yields to 5.20% compared to the previously reported 5.2369%.
Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh signaled that rate hikes may not be the sole mechanism for curbing inflation and suggested a potential review of the Fed's PCE inflation target. Following these comments, Bank of America economists warned of a credibility shock, while forecasting three consecutive 25 basis point hikes this year. Additionally, market sentiment tracked by Polymarket now reflects a 56% probability of a September rate increase, even as US equity futures climbed on positive Microsoft earnings results.
Following the recent rise in 30-year yields, Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh indicated that the Fed may consider revising its PCE-based inflation target and suggested that market tightening could reduce the necessity for further rate hikes. Amid this, Bank of America analysts warned of a potential credibility shock and forecast a 25 basis point hike in each of the Fed's three remaining meetings this year. Meanwhile, market sentiment remains divided as Polymarket bettors estimate a 56% probability of a September rate hike, while investors reacted to positive Microsoft earnings.
Fed Chair Kevin Warsh signaled that the central bank may consider revising its inflation target from PCE and noted that markets are currently tightening on the Fed's behalf. While analysts at Bank of America warned of a potential credibility shock, predicting three consecutive 25 basis point rate hikes this year, Polymarket bettors have raised the probability of a September hike to 56%. Meanwhile, treasury yields saw mixed movement as 10-year rates reportedly reached 4.66% and 30-year yields hovered near 5.20% on Thursday.
While the US 30-year Treasury yield's position remains disputed with reports suggesting it stayed near 5.20%, the 10-year yield reportedly rose to 4.66% on Thursday. Following Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's press conference, Polymarket bettors increased the odds of a September rate hike to 56%, and Bank of America economists predict the Fed will implement three consecutive 25-basis-point hikes throughout the remainder of the year. Additionally, Warsh signaled that the Fed could potentially change its inflation target from PCE following a data review.
While the 30-year Treasury yield is reported to be hovering near 5.20% on Thursday, its status remains disputed. Amidst these fluctuations, the 10-year Treasury yield reportedly rose to 4.66% on Thursday, though this figure is also being contested. Additionally, US equity futures have risen following reassuring Microsoft earnings regarding AI spending.
The US 30-year Treasury yield has risen further to 5.2584%, marking its highest level since mid-2007. Additionally, the benchmark 10-year note yield climbed 6.35 basis points to 4.727%, reaching its peak since January 2025.
The 30-year Treasury yield rose further to 5.2584%, marking its highest level since mid-2007. Additionally, benchmark US 10-year notes climbed 6.35 basis points to 4.727%, the highest rate since January 2025.
The US 30-year Treasury yield has climbed further to 5.2584%, marking a rise of 5.14 basis points from its previous level. Meanwhile, the benchmark 10-year yield rose 6.35 basis points to reach 4.727%, its highest level since January 2025.
The US 30-year Treasury yield has risen further to 5.2584%, marking its highest level since mid-2007. Meanwhile, benchmark US 10-year notes also saw an increase, climbing 6.35 basis points to 4.727%, the highest since January 2025.
The US 30-year bond yield rose by 5.14 basis points to 5.2584%, marking its highest level since mid-2007. Additionally, the benchmark US 10-year note yield climbed 6.35 basis points to 4.727%, reaching its highest point since January 2025.
The US 30-year bond yield rose 5.14 basis points to 5.2584%, marking its highest level since mid-2007. Additionally, the benchmark US 10-year note yield climbed 6.35 basis points to 4.727%, reaching its highest point since January 2025.
The US 30-year Treasury yield has climbed further to a high of 5.27%, surpassing its previously reported level of 5.2369% and marking its highest point since mid-2007.
The US 30-year Treasury yield has climbed further to reach as high as 5.27%, marking its highest level since July 2007.
The US 30-year Treasury yield has climbed further to 5.27%, marking its highest level since July 2007.
The US 30-year Treasury yield has climbed further to reach 5.27%, marking its highest level since July 2007. Additionally, the yield on benchmark US 10-year notes rose to 4.727%, the highest since January 2025, while some reports dispute whether the 30-year yield stayed near 5.20% or hit the 5.27% peak.
The US 30-year Treasury yield has risen further to reach a high of 5.27%, climbing above the previously reported 5.2369% mark. This level represents the highest yield for the 30-year bond since July 2007.
The US 30-year Treasury yield has climbed further to reach 5.27%, marking its highest level since July 2007. This upward movement follows previous reports of the yield hitting 5.2369%.
The US 30-year Treasury yield climbed further to a high of 5.27%, marking its highest level since July 2007, up from the previously reported 5.2369%.
The US 30-year Treasury yield climbed further to a high of 5.27%, marking its highest level since July 2007. Additionally, the yield on benchmark US 10-year notes rose to 4.727%, the highest since January 2025.
The US 30-year Treasury yield climbed as high as 5.27%, reaching its highest level since July 2007.
The US 30-year Treasury yield rose further to hit 5.27%, marking its highest level since July 2007.
The US 30-year Treasury yield has climbed further to a peak of 5.27%, extending its rise beyond the previously reported 5.2369% to hit its highest level since mid-2007.
The US 30-year Treasury yield climbed further to reach 5.27%, marking its highest level since July 2007. Meanwhile, the yield on benchmark US 10-year notes rose to 4.727%, its highest point since January 2025.
The US 30-year Treasury yield climbed further to reach a high of 5.27% on Friday, marking its highest level since July 2007.
The US 30-year Treasury yield climbed further to 5.27% on Friday, marking its highest level since July 2007.
The US 30-year Treasury yield climbed further to reach 5.27% on Friday, marking its highest level since July 2007.
The US 30-year Treasury yield climbed as high as 5.27% on Friday, marking its highest level since July 2007.
The US 30-year Treasury yield rose further to a peak of 5.27%, marking its highest level since July 2007.
The US 30-year Treasury yield rose further, climbing as high as 5.27% on Friday, marking its highest level since July 2007.
The US 30-year Treasury yield has climbed further to 5.27%, marking its highest level since mid-2007.
The US 30-year Treasury yield climbed further to reach 5.27% on Friday, marking its highest level since July 2007.
The US 30-year Treasury yield climbed as high as 5.27% on Friday, marking its highest level since July 2007 and surpassing the previously reported 5.2369%.
The US 30-year Treasury yield climbed further to reach 5.27% on Friday, marking its highest level since July 2007.
The US 30-year Treasury yield climbed further to reach a high of 5.27% on Friday, marking its highest level since July 2007.
The US 30-year Treasury yield climbed as high as 5.27% on Friday, marking its highest level since July 2007.
The US 30-year Treasury yield climbed further to reach 5.27%, marking its highest level since July 2007.
The US 30-year Treasury yield climbed as high as 5.27% on Friday, marking its highest level since July 2007 and surpassing the previously reported 5.2369%.
The US 30-year Treasury yield climbed further to reach a high of 5.27% on Friday, marking its highest level since July 2007.
The US 30-year Treasury yield climbed as high as 5.27% on Friday, marking its highest level since mid-2007 and surpassing the previously reported 5.2369%.
The US 30-year Treasury yield climbed as high as 5.27% on Friday, marking its highest level since July 2007.
The US 30-year Treasury yield climbed as high as 5.27% on Friday, representing a further increase from the previously reported levels and marking its highest point since July 2007.
The US 30-year Treasury yield climbed as high as 5.27% on Friday, marking its highest level since July 2007.
The US 30-year Treasury yield climbed further, reaching a high of 5.27% on Friday, marking its highest level since July 2007.
The US 30-year Treasury yield climbed further to reach a high of 5.27% on Friday, marking its highest level since July 2007.
The US 30-year Treasury yield has continued its upward trajectory, climbing to 5.27% on Friday, marking its highest level since July 2007, surpassing the previous record of 5.2369% reported earlier this week. Additionally, the 10-year Treasury yield has risen to 4.727%, while market expectations for a Federal Reserve rate hike in September have increased, with traders now pricing in 69% odds for an increase.
The US 30-year Treasury yield climbed as high as 5.27% on Friday, marking a further increase from the previously reported 5.2369% and reaching its highest level since mid-2007.
The US 30-year Treasury yield rose further to reach a high of 5.27% on Friday, marking its highest level since mid-2007.
The US 30-year Treasury yield climbed further to reach 5.27% on Friday, marking its highest level since July 2007.
The US 30-year Treasury yield climbed as high as 5.27% on Friday, marking a further increase from the previously reported 5.2369% and reaching its highest level since July 2007.
The US 30-year Treasury yield has climbed further to reach a high of 5.27%, marking its highest level since July 2007. This increase follows the previous peak of 5.2369% reported earlier.
The US 30-year Treasury yield climbed as high as 5.27% on Friday, marking a further increase from its previous level and representing its highest point since mid-2007.
The US 30-year Treasury yield climbed as high as 5.27% on Friday, marking its highest level since July 2007.
The US 30-year Treasury yield climbed as high as 5.27% on Friday, marking its highest level since July 2007. Additionally, the US 10-year Treasury yield rose to 4.727%, its highest since January 2025.
The US 30-year Treasury yield climbed as high as 5.27% on Friday, marking its highest level since July 2007.
The US 30-year Treasury yield climbed as high as 5.27% on Friday, reaching its highest level since July 2007.
The US 30-year Treasury yield climbed as high as 5.27% on Friday, rising further from its previous level and marking its highest point since July 2007.
The US 30-year Treasury yield climbed further to reach 5.27% on Friday, marking its highest level since July 2007.
The US 30-year Treasury yield has climbed further to reach a high of 5.27%, marking its peak level since July 2007.
The US 30-year Treasury yield climbed as high as 5.27% on Friday, marking its highest level since July 2007.
The US 30-year Treasury yield climbed as high as 5.27% on Friday, marking its highest level since July 2007.
The US 30-year Treasury yield climbed as high as 5.27% on Friday, marking its highest level since July 2007.
The US 30-year Treasury yield climbed further to reach 5.27% on Friday, marking its highest level since July 2007.
The US 30-year Treasury yield climbed further to reach a high of 5.27% on Friday, marking its highest level since July 2007.
The US 30-year Treasury yield rose further to reach a high of 5.27% on Friday, marking its highest level since July 2007.
The US 30-year Treasury yield climbed as high as 5.27% on Friday, marking its highest level since July 2007.
The US 30-year Treasury yield climbed further to a high of 5.27% on Friday, marking its highest level since July 2007. This surge follows the previous peak of 5.2369%, as long-term yields continue to respond to inflationary pressures and hawkish central bank commentary.
